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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lml who wrote (7603)	7/13/2000 10:06:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"I think in the long run the fiber now being run to the RT in the neighborhoods is going to migrate to a FTTC where no subscriber is more than 1000 feet in order that the full bandwidth capabilities of VDSL be realized over the twisted pair running into the home." That pretty much spells out the theory that many have espoused. But look what happens to price points between now and then. The cost of the first move (where they are now) has to pay for itself at some point. When will that be? I don't know. But by the time they decide to take it to the next step (FTTC), the pricing on optical elements will have dropped significantly. What do they do then? Fulfill the FSAN dream of 1996 -- like the MSOs are now realizing their HFC dream of the same era -- by creating a vdsl supported FSAN? Or, do they exploit 10Gb/Ethernet over native fiber which will be dirt cheap by then? I'm not sure that even an objective ILEC engineer can answer this question with a straight face and be entirely sure, except to stand by the party line while biting their tongues. Remember, when they get around to putting in a curbside system, and if they want to deliver program grade video, they will still have to use MPEG. And MPEG is what they would use if they went directly to the home with fiber and converted to local premises Ethernet or ATM. In other words, it may already be too late for them to profitably use the two- or three- stage "fiber creep" approach any more. Their next move, IMO, should be to bite the bullet and take it home. Of course, this is not to be argumentative to any of the points you've raised. I'm only voicing my opinion on its own strength. FAC