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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (25458)	7/14/2000 8:59:52 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Exerpts from our board for those that don't lurk there..... By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, July 14, 2000 - 08:45 am: Edit ....full moon days close up 83% of the time. AND that is the worst day to be short, as the average drop on a full moon day is only 20.10 points on the Dow. BUT, shorting before the full moon does much better. The average cumulative drop during the three days BEFORE a full moon trading day is 90.40 points. That's the equivalent of over 10 points on the OEX. AND, the best day of the three to be short, or in puts, is the day BEFORE the full moon, which averages dropping 35.20 points. SO Monday should be up, then the market should drop from there. PPI came in hotter by .1 at .6 but cooler than expected .1 at minus .1 ex food and energy ( which none of us use -ggg-) Retail sales came in hotter than expected by .1 at .5 Why futures are going up I have no idea. AG is going to jump all over this market come August. Good Luck, Lee By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, July 14, 2000 - 08:40 am: Edit I have over bought on the NASDAQ, NYSE and most of the mania stocks that have moved up. Many of the "good" earnings are being sold. We also have a full moon tonight. ( "Sell the full, buy the new") Don is at class sells. Profits were made and I don't let profits turn into losses. Connect the bottom of the March mania and you get a line right near here as a resistance. PLayers are going to look at that line and remember that was the line they crossed the last time they thought things only went up. Consumer credit jumped up huge in Monday's report which shows that higher rates still aren't making J6P slow down. It is not a matter of will AG raise rates, it is only a question of when he will raise rates. The last couple weeks were the time to be playing long. It is now time to start eyeballing extis if you aren't out yet and to eyeball shorts for the next pullback. BTW you do realize this is the time frame when the market dropped the last 2 years also. Everyone thought it was going up those years too. -ggggg- EDIT - I have two longs not one targeted for entries today if PPI is good. Good Luck, Lee By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, July 14, 2000 - 08:17 am: Edit Good read from Kahuna thread.... Eulogy for the dot.com bubble (nothing new, but good read) interactive.wsj.com (sub. req.) The question is: What brought on the mania? Some answers lie in the murky realms of mob psychology, the human capacity for denial, the get-rich-quick mentality -- factors in speculative frenzies since the days of the tulip. But to an unusual degree, the Internet bubble was a product of basic avarice and tactics that smacked of the boiler room. From Wall Street pro to fledgling day trader, all joined hands in a giddy game of lowering standards, pushing out IPOs and trumpeting prospects, with little regard for a company's true long-term -- that is to say, more than three months' -- outlook. .... Many investors have made good money, but many got clobbered. And the pros? They made billions, and most of them wound up winners even after the bubble burst. By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, July 14, 2000 - 08:09 am: Edit I received a NASDAQ short term sell last night so I think we are near the high now and should get a pullback soon. Everyone beat or met estimates yesterday that I was watching except VTSS which could be hinting that the analyst that was being made fun of may in fact be right after all and maybe the semi cycle is nearing it's peak. Only time will tell. Again, I will pound the table that there really hasn't been too much of the bullish movement in the leader stocks. Many of the moves I am seeing in other stocks look like clear cut bear rallies. I will be watching RFMD which was one of my not posted trades due to the high risk , but it ran nicely but hit it's head on the old fork bottom tine and formed a gravestone. If it retreats, that will be one sign that this was a sucker rally. The GE hanging man from Wednesday bore fruit as it failed to move out of the trading range and instead fell on the good earnings showing that at least the DOW stock players do use thier minds and not their emotions. My play on QWST and IBM didn't bear a whole lot but I probably should have let it have more time. WCOM is rallying on runors of a DT take over. Give me a break!!!! If the European Union and the US wouldn't allow a Sprint/WCOM merger, why in the heck would they allow a DT/WCOM merger?? DT is even bigger!! People are just being plain stupid now! If you can stomach buying a stock at 150 times sales and playing the run hoping it doesn't go to fair value then you can make some nice coin. If you can't stomach that, then you have to be happy buyying CSCO at 62 and selling at 65, DD at 43 and selling at 46, etc. Good Luck, Lee I am off to work