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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lml who wrote (7610)	7/14/2000 12:56:01 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 12823

Hi lml, Oh oh, what a loaded deck at the PS portion of your post. Let me be the first to comment, since I'm the least sincere, last to know and first to fly off at the handle. Who will own BLS in a year? Its current shareholders. It will be run by Duane Ackerman, and run very well. As the best of breed of the RBOCs, it will continue to set the pace on modernization while at the same time maintaining the high standards of schmooze in Beltropolis that only a $2.4MM outside man like Jere Drummond can provide. What will become of FON (Sprint)? Inevitably, the most valuable asset of the company, the wireless operation will be sold off at what at the time will appear to be nose-bleed prices. Because of xenophobia, DT and FT will be prevented from participating in the back room auction. Expect Vodaphone (yeah, I know I'm not being au courant, just accurate) to be the eventual successful bidder. The runt operation will be further divided, with data comms assets going to UUNet's mama, or maybe T. The LD will be sold to some fool CLEC operator who's willing to stick his neck out on a dying industry in the hope of milking the cash cow for a while longer. Is Q going to make another move? Naw, they like San Diego just fine. What role will fixed wireless play in the telco effort to offer broadcast video as a "bundled" service? None. If they had wanted to do this, they would have been buying up licenses a long time ago. Think about this, any millimeter radio is faced with a real problem is suburbia. It's called foliage by the experts. The rest of us call 'em trees. Best, or maybe not, I reckon it's in the eye of the beholder, Le Faineant Qui Voit

To: lml who wrote (7610)	7/14/2000 7:41:26 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

lml, "... its just a debate, and an opportunity to learn from others who hold different POVs & possess more insight into these matters than I do." Excellent characterization of what we do here, no argument. Now, if only Denver Techie and WTC would join in here more often to help fulfill those characterizations. <s> "An interesting exercise here would be to perform a "back of the napkin" analysis of the economics of VDSL v. FTTH. What are the pros & cons of each? How will timing of deployment impact expected ROI over the long term? I think this is precisely the exercise that strategists employed by the ILECs have undertaken over the past couple years." Well, that could turn out to be a pretty large napkin. Behind the scenes I've been holding several simultaneous discussions concerning the assimilation of information concerning digital/analog differences -- when I refer to analog here, I've usually referring to r.f. modulation at head ends and black coaxial delivery to the set top box -- w/r/t video on demand, set top box functionality, SP/MSO intranet vs open Internet access (there's a difference), back office server architectures, interconnects with content providers (which is a capability that does not receive equal marks in both domains), the list goes on. Often times when I read arguments against, and surprisingly, even "for" fiber to the home, one of the categories of comparison that is usually missing is the "potential" to support as-yet unknown applications (some of which are known, but not feasible yet without fiber) that the enabling characteristics of fiber engender. How do you support an argument for a value proposition of qualities and quantities of applications that are still unknown, but that you know intuitively will emerge when the platform has been installed? The point is this: Even while there is a premium to be paid (albeit, a decreasing one over time) in the way of extra costs for fiber to the home, those costs are worth the cost due to the additional potential which could never be realized over lower forms of plant life. "As far your viewpoint, "bringing on home" the fiber, I'm all for it. When do we start?" Very soon, I suspect, in affluent areas and perhaps some MDU situations. Those living elsewhere, like everything else, to follow. Some of the early plays may be a mixture of fiber and wireless where terrains (and local franchising authorities) present obstacles. Keep an eye on the utilities and integrators in industries which do the same kind of work, but in different sectors, such as alarm system companies, intelligent highway implementation firms, residential developers, and so on. Oh, and of course, companies who profess to be putting in FTTH for a living. smiles FAC