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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (3867)	7/14/2000 12:37:45 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 5482

Scott, very reassuring - coming from your namesake! Thanks for the links. Gottfried

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (3867)	7/15/2000 3:21:22 AM
From: Red Dragon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

Red Dragon is about to get burnt by his own hot air Well, in the big picture, it ultimately doesn't matter when the cycle actually peaks. What really matters is when Wall Street thinks the cycle is nearing an end, and starts to lose interest in the semi industry. Look at Gottfried's chart, especially in 95-96. Notice that KLIC peaked about 9 months before the actual industry did during that cycle. geocities.com So perhaps you will be right, and the actual semi peak may not happen soon. But it's possible that I might also have been correct in calling when Wall Street's interest in semi stocks peaked. Indeed, all the semis like AMAT, etc. are struggling and trailing the NASDAQ over the past 3 months. Here is a great chart that summarizes everything: finance.yahoo.com At any rate, the bottom line is the performance of the portfolio. You know that I dumped all my KLIC at over $70 a few months ago and immediately rolled it over to fiber optic stocks like SDLI. Indeed, just 6 weeks ago, I urged everyone to get into SDLI (see below). Around that time, SDLI was trading at $160-$190. Today it sits at $360. Hope everyone here cashed in with me. Message 13786075 So even if I'm wrong about the peak of the cycle, I'm very happy with dumping KLIC above $70 and rolling those proceeds into a superhot stock. I'm glad my money has not been languishing in a trading range. Whether my reasoning for leaving KLIC ultimately turns out to be correct or not, the end result is very sweet. Ultimately, that's what counts. The market always has the final judgement. p.s. If SK is correct and the peak happens after 2001, then by all means, KLIC and the other semi stocks will soon resume their upward course. KLIC has had a nice run in anticipation of earnings July 20. Future guidance will be critical. I still own AMAT that I bought for a split adjusted $6.50 in 1994, so I certainly wouldn't mind seeing the semis run a bit.

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (3867)	7/15/2000 2:30:52 PM
From: Red Dragon	Respond to of 5482

Scott, the interview with Mr. Kulicke was very interesting. He certainly is going out on a limb predicting the top won't happen in 2001. He must have very compelling evidence to make him believe this, because it's a risky statement to make so publicly. All the semis will be reporting soon. Future guidance will be critical in determining how the market reacts. Many semi stocks are moving up in anticipation of the news. A contact of mine who works at Micron thinks the top is at least 6 months away. All the insider selling still bothers me. The data for the industry looks great, and I would still be in KLIC if it weren't for all the insider selling. As the saying goes, Action speaks louder than words. Why say that the industry will not peak until 2002, but then sell 50-100% of your stock in early 2000? That's the ONLY reason that I got out. I was just monkeying the action of Mr. Kulicke and the rest of the KLIC executive staff. I guess one possibility is that they misread the market. Mr. Kulicke admits "We're all surprised at the length and robustness of this cycle." Given that mindset, perhaps they all thought the peak might happen in the next 6 months, so they all got out in April. As it turns out, the cycle might have much longer to run, confounding even the insiders. It will be a fascinating story that unfolds.