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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NeuroInvestment who wrote (1343)	7/14/2000 9:18:40 AM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro	Respond to of 52153

I have no information to disagree with your or Harry's estimates. But, IMHO the royalty rate may be higher than 20%. This is not based upon direct information, just upon reading between the lines in conversations with the company. Keep in mind that this is just for the US rights. There will, in all likelihood be another partner for the European rights. Best regards John de C

To: NeuroInvestment who wrote (1343)	7/15/2000 1:40:16 AM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Does this seem outlandish? Memantine for Diabetes ........ User Population:...... 800,000 ...... 1,200,000 Annual Tablets ............365..............365 SP per Tablet ...........$1.00............$1.00 Annual Rev $ ..........$365.00..........$365.00 Annual FRX Rev$ ..$292,000,000.....$438,000,000 NTII Royalty % ............15%...............15% Royalties $ ......$43,800,000......$65,700,000 Opinions from anyone are greatly appreciated .... Lastly, I view whatever the Royalties$ are as equivalent to EBIT$ ... other R&D being mgt./investor discretion and G&A $ so small as to be ignored .... regards, John McCarthy