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Strategies & Market Trends : Predicting news and runs for big % gains -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scouser who wrote (1512)	7/14/2000 11:07:21 AM
From: herry iball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2182

Just got POPM One of speedy's (200mph) picks. chart nice, buying has been steady all morning. chart.bigcharts.com

To: scouser who wrote (1512)	7/15/2000 9:15:17 PM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2182

Stockscores.com Perspectives For the week ending July 14, 2000 Thank-you to everyone who sent their kind wishes for my wedding last weekend. We had a great time. - Tyler In this week’s issue: - Commentary: Rear View Mirror Investing - Feature Strategy: Willliam Volume Accumulation tool - Tip of the Week: Save your market scans - How to subscribe to the Stockscores.com Perspectives Daily Edition *Stockscores.com Commentary* Imagine you are watching the evening news, and the weatherman comes on and tells viewers that it is going to rain tomorrow for no other reason than because that is what it did today. You look outside and see that the rain has stopped, and the sun is bursting through the disappearing clouds. You turn back to the TV, and hear the weatherman tell you that it also rained on this day last year, which must further confirm that it will rain tomorrow. A small boy rolls by your window on a bike, headed for the park. He doesn’t look too worried about rain. Using history to predict the future is a common source of error for stock market analysts, investors and the media. It is not uncommon to hear analysts say that the market will do such and such because the last time the market did what we see now, it did such and such. A good example concerns the crash of 1987, when the markets rebounded very strong and went through a good move higher that ended up being a decent bull market. After the stock market crash that we witnessed in April of this year, many stock market analysts stated that we would see a strong rally off the bottom, just as we saw in 1987. Since it happened before, it must happen again. It has not rallied back like it did in 1987. Trusting history to predict the future of the stock market is similar to driving forward by only looking in your rear view mirror. It may work, but if you hit a corner, what you see in the rear view mirror will likely be too late to make the turn. Things change, and you need to factor in all the relevant information when making a decision. Knowing what just happened is not enough. Our weatherman has an easy time telling us what the weather is like right now, but he has to look at a number of different indicators to predict what will happen in the future. When analyzing the stock market, you have to do the same. Look at indicators with an eye to how they telegraph the future, not to summarize what is happening now. To say that a market that is strong or weak right now must mean it will be the same in the future is of course an error in logic. While simple when expressed in these terms, it is surprising how many people make this kind of mistake. I make the majority of my market prognostications by using what is happening now to reveal changing psychology, new information or shifts in trend. I want to find clues about the things that will be important in the future. I always skip the business section of the newspaper because it only tells me what has happened in the past, and that information is close to useless. When looking at an individual stock or market, it is important to not have a rear view mirror approach. Look down the road and see what is in front of you. You’ll have a better chance of getting where you want to go. Enough Said. *Stockscores.com Feature Strategy * The William’s Volume Accumulation tool is useful for finding stocks that are being accumulated. Stocks that trade stronger volume on days that the price goes up are generally in the market’s favor since the market is willing to pay more for the stock on a day when there is a good deal of volume. The William’s is an indicator that uses price and volume traded to determine the degree of stock accumulation or distribution. Essentially, it is a moving average of the amount of stock traded on up days versus down days. I like to scan for stocks with a Bullish William’s indicator that are near their highs. If these stocks have not already made a strong move to the upside, they are worth considering as stocks that may perform well in the near term. This week, I did this Market Scan for the Toronto Stock Exchange (the market with the best looking technicals among all North American markets), with the following scan settings: Exchange = TSE Score Rating = Bullish Price of 80 Day High <= 5 % Williams Volume Accumulation = Bullish $ Value Volume = >= 1000000 (One million $) The scan revealed 35 candidates out of the 1200 or so that trade on the TSE. I now must look at the charts and look for stocks that are showing signs of optimism but have not already made dramatic runs higher as these stocks will tend to be too risky. Here are the stocks I like from this group: Ballard Power Systems (T.BLD) Bank of Montreal (T.BMO) CI Fund Management (T.CIX) Canadian Pacific (T.CP) Great West Lifeco (T.GWO) CDN Hotel Income Property REIT (T.HOT.UN) Koch Pipelines (T.KPC.UN) Sobeys Canada (T.SBY) Each of these stocks is worth considering right now. It is interesting to note that there are a number of Financial, Energy Trusts and Pipeline stocks in the batch that was created by this market scan. When one considers the expectation that interest rates are headed lower (good for financials) and earnings from oil and gas are solid (good for Energy Trusts and Pipelines stocks) it is easy to see that this scan is good for finding the market leaders. *Stockscores.com Site Tip of the Week* It is possible to save the results from each Market Scan that you do. This is a good way to test different scans to see how effective they are. When you have completed a scan, save it with a name that includes some clue as to what the scan was, and the date that you did it. This can be done at the bottom of the scan result page. A month later, go back and look at the scan again to see how the stocks that your scan criteria revealed ended up doing. *Stockscores.com Perspective Daily Edition* Each day, we scan the market for opportunities and reveal only the best to our Daily Edition subscribers by email. Plus, we provide comments on past features with regular updates, helping you understand how to trade these features. A two-week free trial is available for new subscribers. To enroll, simply send a request to stockscores@home.com. We will have you added within a week of your request. One-year subscriptions are available at the following rates: $100US $125CDN Checks can be sent, made out to Perspectives, to: Perspectives 1919B - 4th Street S.W. Suite 167 Calgary, AB T2S 1W4 *References* To get the Stockscore on any of over 20,000 North American stocks: stockscores.com For a background on the theories used by Stockscores: stockscores.com For strategies that can help you find new opportunities: stockscores.com To scan the market using extensive filter criteria: stockscores.com To build a portfolio of stocks and view a slide show of their charts: stockscores.com To see which sectors are leading the market, and the stock components: stockscores.com ***Change of Email Address or Removal from Email List Please go to the Registration area of the site, and utilize the Edit tool. Disclaimer __________ This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The writers and editors of Perspectives may have positions in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don't consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.