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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Habib who wrote (47230)	7/14/2000 12:24:54 PM
From: The Prophet	Respond to of 93625

I agree with most of what you say, but again you forget that RMBS may very well get a royalty on all SDRAM as well as RDRAM. So your analysis viz., for example, notebooks, ignores this. My guess is one of three scenarios: 1. No SDRAM royalties. Then 2002: 70 billion RDRAM plus related controllers, chipsets, cpus, logic, etc. * 1.5% - 40% tax * 20 p/e/ = 120 dollars per share 2. SDRAM royalties. Then 2002: 100 billion RDRAM plus related controllers, chipsets, cpus, logic, etc. 1.5% - 40% tax 20 p/e = 180 dollars per share 3. Same as 2, but add other chip to chip interfaces, which Tate says should increase sales by appox. 50%. Then 150 billion * 1.5% - 40% tax * 20 p/e = 270 dollars per share Keep in mind that though we view the DRAM estimates as optimistic, they are the numbers out there and may very well form the basis for market estimates and valuations going forward. By the way, the 1.5 % may be low for two reasons: royalties on logic/cpus are higher and if DDR takes off, its royalties are even higher.