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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dougSF30 who wrote (793)	7/14/2000 1:49:14 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Doug, Individual Investor Semiconductor: Is it Time to Sell Advanced Micro Devices? Will the torment never cease? I look at it differently. SSB, the broker handling 400 million tender offer created this cycle of fear, and this article just shows what a stroke of genius it was. With article like this, more bondholders will accept the offer, which means more business for SSB, and maybe lower prices AMD will have to pay to buy back the bonds. Now fast forward to July 19th, AMD blows away the earning estimates with earnings closer to $2 than $1, announces the stock split, successful bond repurchase, at which point Jonathan Joseph can go back to being an analyst and do whatever he wants with his future ratings, and may even upgrade back to where he started from (on stronger than expected microprocessor growth) Joe

To: dougSF30 who wrote (793)	7/14/2000 2:05:59 PM
From: minnow68	Respond to of 275872

Doug, It appears to me that the II article completely ignores the possibility that AMD could earn significantly more than the analysts are currently estimating. In the last two quarters alone, AMD has earned $1.19 a share more than the consensus estimate (see biz.yahoo.com. It now also appears that the consensus estimate for Q2'00 will also be low, by as much as a dollar per share for the quarter. That II appears to simply ignore the possibly of huge future earning surprises given this backdrop leaves me just shaking my head in disbelief. I wonder what II thinks AMD will be selling for in Dec. 2001 if AMD earns 9 dollars this year and 13 next year? Mike

To: dougSF30 who wrote (793)	7/14/2000 2:07:40 PM
From: Goutam	Respond to of 275872

Doug, The author of this report calls it a research report, without any original research data. All it was a rehash of SSB report with his own opinion at the end. It remainds of an old post on AMD thread that referred to one of the Yahoo posts as an article. But one thing that Wall Street analysts do agree upon, however, is the fact that the semiconductor industry remains highly cyclical, and will turn south once again in the future. The question is, of course, when, and whether or not the landing will be soft for semiconductor stocks. Although there appears to be some life left in the semiconductor sector and AMD's shares, the debate over the cycle peak may limit much forward P/E multiple expansion from here. We would be prepared to take profits should share-price advances largely shrug off what appears to be legitimate concerns that the industry boom will begin to subside sooner rather than later. I don't understand how this guy can jump to a conclusion that the Industry boom will begin to subside sooner rather than later from the stuff quoted by him regarding what the other analysts agree upon. If this guy doesn't see any fundamental reasons to hold the stock, why wait till the stock-price to go up to take the profits? His last statement in this article was a complete nonsense. To me, he sounds worse than AMD bashers on the Yahoo message board. Goutama .

To: dougSF30 who wrote (793)	7/14/2000 2:11:44 PM
From: EricRR	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Doug: The link to the article is points to something else now, and I can't find it one the AMD news stack. Was it pulled?

To: dougSF30 who wrote (793)	7/14/2000 2:14:42 PM
From: Alighieri	Respond to of 275872

Will the torment never cease? Doug, a good news article in contrast... Al MotleyFool.com - Fool News Gateway Meets Growing Demand By Chris Rugaber Gateway (NYSE: GTW - news), the No. 2 direct seller of personal computers, reported estimate-beating earnings last night of $0.37 a share, 32% higher than last year's EPS, with net income up 36% to $122 million and revenue up 12% to $2.14 billion. The company's generally successful quarter may serve as a positive indicator for other companies in the computer hardware industry. Consumer PC demand is strong, which confirms earlier statements from Gateway competitor Dell (Nasdaq: DELL - news), and may signal strong sales growth for chip-maker Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD - news), which counts Gateway as one of its largest customers. First, the death of the PC industry has been greatly exaggerated numerous times over the years. Last summer, the much-ballyhooed "free PC" trend was allegedly going to cause all sorts of problems for the boxmakers, but there's little sign of it these days. Gateway reported that its average unit price (AUP) was $1,830 in the second quarter, 4% lower than last year and only 1% lower than the previous quarter. This compares well to a year ago, when AUPs declined 13% from the year before that. This relatively stable pricing environment is part of the reason why Gateway's gross margins hit a record level of 23.3%. (Gateway's increasing revenue from services and other "beyond-the-box" businesses also played a large part.) Similar trends are evident in the broader industry. PC prices as a whole increased 3% in the first three weeks of June, according to a CNET report last week. And while Dell is continuing to suffer from parts shortages, the company described demand two weeks ago as "robust." Gateway's 39% increase in unit shipments to consumers would seem to confirm that. Dell is scheduled to report earnings August 10. Meanwhile, chipmaker AMD, which traded up $2 1/8 this morning, may already be reacting positively to Gateway's news. After struggling with component shortages from Intel (Nasdaq: INTC - news) earlier this year, Gateway began buying more chips from AMD, becoming the largest customer of its Athlon processors. In May, Gateway's CFO stated that the company would "probably" double the number of AMD chips in its consumer division this quarter. Both Intel and AMD will report earnings next week. Of course, Gateway's report also bodes pretty well for itself. The company seems to be succeeding in its efforts to move "beyond the box" by offering services such as financing, warranties, and Internet connectivity. Gateway earned 40% of its income from these services, up from 25% in the first quarter and ahead of its own schedule, which called for the 40% target to be hit by the end of the year. In addition, half the income is "recurring," most of it presumably from its co-branded ISP with America Online (NYSE: AOL - news), which is an excellent cushion for a company in the seasonal business of PC sales. Finally, the company also maintained control over its expenses, with sales, general & administrative (SG&A) costs declining slightly as a percentage of revenues. That's a good sign, given that the company is expanding its "bricks and mortar" retail operations, with its own "Gateway Country" stores and its store-within-a-store outlets at 92 OfficeMax locations in the U.S., and several hundred others worldwide. Gateway's success hasn't been a secret, and the company's shares have jumped over 25% in the past couple of months, only to lose about 5% this morning. Most analysts reiterated their generally positive ratings on the stock today, but Banc of America Securities downgraded to the company to a "buy" from a "strong buy" based on valuation concerns. Gateway traded at approximately 39x this year's estimated EPS of $1.83 at yesterday's close, roughly in line with its 32% EPS growth in the past two quarters. Fools interested in the company will have to decide for themselves whether that's too expensive for them.

To: dougSF30 who wrote (793)	7/14/2000 2:15:39 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Doug - RE: "Individual Investor Semiconductor: Is it Time to Sell Advanced Micro Devices?" This article isn't anything new. It has a bunch of random facts thrown together. "Moreover, Gateway (NYSE:GTW - news) , a vital consumer of AMD microprocessors, reported during its quarterly conference call on Thursday that 40% of its sales are now derived from services and other non-hardware related items. Gateway management stated that it's comfortable with this shift in revenue mix, as sales ``beyond the box'' tend to be less volatile and higher-margined." So it is a negative for AMD that Gateway is becoming a broader company? Does this also mean it is a negative to VIA's future chipset business that AMD plans to enter the consumer network appliance market? After all, AMD is VIA's indirect customer. So many people are trying to make the call on the semiconductor cycle, this is just another one warning about it. "It's important to note, however, that earnings are expected to peak this fiscal year, then recede to a mean analyst forecast of $4.72 a share for the year ending March 2002." He didn't do his homework properly. He doesn't know about AMD's tax benefits.