Greetings Tom
Sorry to see you sold your LBRT @30. But a profit is a profit, I always say. Congrats.
As far as future expected market action for LBRT, I have
a few ideas. Perhaps they could prove helpful?
First, LBRT move, a chatroom rumor? 7 + million shares. Yeah
right. I don't think so. If a chatroom moron notices some
heavy activity in a stock and wants to make up stories, I really don't think that is going to have much impact with
the kind of move LBRT made Fri. LBRT is a real business in
a virtually untapped new market that generates amazing growth
and generates real money with the best pedigree a company could want (check out the names behind LBRT) with real alliances and business arrangements to impact their future (how about AOL for only one).
I have been noticing (especially the couple days before Fri.)
large buy trades coming in on LBRT. Since I have nothing better to do than incessantly click the SI realtime quotes,
flipping around to Island Book page and my IQ charts realtime
charts (15 min, 60 min, daily, weekly), I see a whole bunch
of individual trades and I can get a pretty good feel for
whats going on. For example, I saw Wednes. where LBRT was gaining strength during the latter half of the day (60 min chart, candles, volume) only to break down again near the end
of trading. The hour before was up on 334,400 vol (7/12 14:30), the final hour was down twice as much movement on only 169,200 volume (7/12 15:30). While it was plunging on
100, 500, 1000 share trades, I was lucky enough to click and
see one of many large + trades (25,000 shares), a 90,000 buy
at 25 5/16 aprox while the price was trading below 25 bid and ask. This type of baloney action makes me suspicious as hell and feel very, very good about my long position. No way was I going to bail until my first price objective (33.50 last high
in descending wedge -daily) was achieved. The market action
I described is done on purpose to shake the confidence of the
investor, to fake them out of their winning long bets, get them to bail at break even or small profit, or even loss! The
MM knows which way the big bets are going long before anyone
else and manipulate trades, sheppards the price however they choose to achieve their goals (fake out the greatest # of investors). From the price break out(6/30) on the daily chart of the desending wedge, it would have been straightforward to just have the price go ahead and break through resistance at
30 and start doing its thing (first fib. retracement 69.21 -38%). But that would have been too easy. Easy money does not
exist in the stock market. Much more useful for the MMs was to have the price fail the 30 resistance and fail twice (60 min charts) with sell offs. But the third time is a charm (I've noticed this all too often). It was very enjoyable and just reward for not being faked out, to kick back (last batch
of LBRT longs from 24 1/16 - + margin! heh heh heh) and watch
the blast through 30 to my min target of 33.50. I sold 1/4
at 33 1/4 and another 1/4 at 34 1/32. 35+ % gain. The last
1/2 will not go until my min near term target (42.00 gap).
In the meantime, resistance is now support. And keep in mind,
the MMs like to pierce supports, just enough for max fake out. So I'm thinking downside action from here should be between 29-30. Next target up will be 38.50 high in the last
desending wedge, then 42.00 gap, then 48.50 high in wedge,
then 69.21 38% fib retrace, etc. In each progression, resistance will become support. My strategy from here will be
to sell each target, loading up again at support (no more margin). Profits will be ploughed back in to accumulate more
and more shares at no cost for leveraged gains to the upside.
No way will I consider shorting until the first major play (fill gap at 42) is achieved. Then maybe only small position.
48.50 and 69.21 will be considered as possible shorting opportunities as well. Short term only.
As far as Monday AM, I see two likely scenarios.
1 - we sell off to stab at support @ 30, then rebound to take on resistance at 35, 38.50, 42.00.
2 - fridays' daily candle on the chart is white marubozu on big volume. Very bullish. A possible continuation would be
more frenzied up action early to levels mentioned, pull back
(some kind of attack to 30 is expected), rebound to validate
Friday's white candle on the chart, possibly another strong
gain closing basis.
I will be ready for any or other of these scenarios playing off of the 15, 60 min. charts. I think anyone can see where the daily and weekly charts are going (check ADX and stochastics).
Volume Mon. should be about 1/2 friday's so around 3 mil or so. Plenty for a wild profitable trading day.
I have to say the reward was worth the pain. My hat is off to
the MMs on this one. Maximum fake-out city. A real beauty.
Anyway, now the real fun begins...
Very good luck to you trading and all the other LBRT fans out there.
Regards,
Eichler |
