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To: UnBelievable who wrote (3946)	7/15/2000 12:22:16 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

for a little while, yes. it is btw. quite normal to see bullishness at secondary peaks surpass the extremes seen at the all time high. Rydex ratio also made a new low today.... also interesting is that AAII (now 65% bulls) has seen its bears fluctuate between 10-20% over the past three weeks. that's really the bottom of the barrel. it indicates massive capitulation. imo at the upcoming top, which i believe will be nested in the July-August period (with perhaps August bringing either a slightly higher or slightly lower high than the July one) will see almost everyone long, including the professed bears. this is due to the psychological effect of this rebound...it fortifies the belief that nothing can bring this market down, that every decline, no matter how harsh will be recovered in no time at all. then with everyone fully invested, we'll get an economic datum, or an as-of-yet not foreseeable event that will lead to the next unwinding period. based on some cycle work, and other indications like the inverted yield curve, the surging default rates in junk bonds, the extremely high level of margin, the numerous signs of historically unprecedented complacency, and the huge economic imbalances in the form of the massive private sector debt overhang and c/a deficit, my personal guess is that the next downturn will be one of the worst of the past 25 years. of course these expectations are based on comparing current conditions with historic precedent. if indeed a new era has arrived, they may be completely wrong. did i mention buy the dip? -g-