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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John T. who wrote (56623)	7/15/2000 10:26:03 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Sounds like you are all bearish here anyway so what would you have to sell? Puts? Correction to critics. No one including me is right about timing EVER. But I did post here a month or so ago that the Naz was going to 4400 in the midst of a summer rally. That rally has has fits and spurts but I think you're seeing the action now. I also called no more interest rate hikes which many here disagreed with, no more inflation which many disagreed with, QCOm recovering on phony Asian stories (which has happened, and I only bought at 55-61) and retailers about to pop (which happened right on target). I was dead wrong about UIS because of an earnings warning. My IBM also got hurt. UIS, IFMX, etc were overly-overly punished as many others have been. When they are overly punished like that and they are generally good companies just wait a week or two and try to buy the bottom. Then wait a few more weeks. Usually works. Usually get a nice short squeeze as ashorts tend to hit stocks at the bottom not the top. Besides UIS I have been doing great. And since I just doubled dfown on UIS I will probably get my money back. Right now I don't see any economic signs pointing to a downturn in the economy or market. No rate hikes until at least after the election. August-September could be slow as usual and I'll lighten up but will re-buy in October for a late year election rally. This month, high-fliers will soon get overbought then the value plays should look very juicy. Oil stocks as a hedge. The second half should be strong for beaten down computer-software groups (IBM will ratchet up bigtime IMHO) and there is money to be made. In other words, I was not always right but more than I was wrong lately thus blanket criticism of my posts isn't honest. The problem with many on this thread is that they are convinced there's a bear market going on when in fact it's inaccurate to call it that. We have had plenty of roller-coaster action but mainly on interest rate and earnings fears. Those earnings fears have also been overdone as we're seeing now. Thus the market needs to correct back upward. Bonds are a lousy investment now, real estate has peaked out, gold with no inflation is to be avoided. Unless you want to sit it out I'd say you're better off going long. If you want safety then play the oversold issues. I recently bought WCOM at 37, COMS at 41, LU at 56, WFMI at 33. Look for those type bargains. There are still plenty of them out there. IBM at 103, T at 33, UIS at 13+, VZ at 49+, ADIC at 13. Buy them low and just sit on them a little while. The downside is very limited and the upside - well - should be stellar. My only other mistake lately has been selling WCOM, COMS and WFMI too soon. But when I get 10 points fast I usually take it.