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To: AllansAlias who wrote (3954)	7/16/2000 8:27:40 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 436258

from the toronto star today.... Get set for shift in most-wanted stocks It never ends. Investors and market watchers who correctly anticipated the current summer rally now have two new problems to solve. How high will it go and how long will it last? I think the how-long problem, the time problem, can be solved by counting the weeks required to complete an intermediate stock-market cycle. This is this cycle I rely on to locate those significant rallies and corrections in the major North American indices that occur once or twice a year. On average the intermediate cycle is about 24 to 26 weeks from peak to peak or trough to trough. The last intermediate market peak was in the first week of March this year. I can therefore estimate the next peak will occur in late August or early September. Figuring out how high we'll go is more difficult. Currently all of the major indices are rallying at different rates of momentum. The technology-heavy Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market are currently rising faster than the stocks in the more balanced S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average. That's because technology is still our market leader, or dominant theme. It was the technology stocks that pushed the markets higher through 1999 and into early 2000, and it was also those same stocks that got beaten up during the mini-crash earlier this year, in March and April. Before that mini-crash, the advance was broad and led by most of the technology stocks. The new technology-laden Canadian Venture Exchange ran up to a record high in mid-March, as did the Nasdaq. The current problem is the structure of the summer rally. This time things have changed. The current rally is being led by only a handful of the larger technology stocks. The big-cap technology issues have lifted the Nasdaq by about 50 per cent from the low in May, while the micro-cap technology issues have pushed the CDNX up by only 14 per cent in the same period. Investors have now decided that not all technology stocks are alike and have poured their money into fewer stocks. The result has been a stunning rally in that handful of large technology stocks. This thin leadership is also dangerous in that any bad news in the group could trigger a selling panic. You can see the effect of this in our chart of the Nasdaq composite index. The advance from the low point in May, at point B, to the current C represents a stunning seven-week gain of more than a third. Note also the mini-crash from the high in March, at point A, to the low in May at B. The current recovery bounce from B to C is a normal 50 per cent recovery. Technically that could be it for our technology-led summer rally. We could spend the next eight to 10 weeks looking for new leadership while the technology stocks tread water. The Dow Jones industrial average is always a handy place to look when searching for potential new market leaders or shifts in investment capital. That's because the Dow is diverse in financial, consumer, industrial and technology stocks. Last week's advance in the shares of Dow components Alcoa Inc., J. P. Morgan & Co., American Express Co. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are positive signs that the market could be broadening out in terms of investor participation. I think this could be the welcome early signs of a capital shift from technology to financial, consumer and cyclical stocks. Investors should reduce risk by broadening out their portfolios and reducing exposure to technology stocks and e-business-type funds.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (3954)	7/17/2000 9:12:33 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

Allan, not ALL are at historic lows right now, but all the historic lows have been achieved during this year. importantly, the positioning indicators (Rydex, put/call, futures traders commitments) are all at historic extremes, while the polls are getting close (some are already there). i don't know of a site that publishes the lot... and no, the theory about bullishness at secondary peaks is not a generally accepted fact, although i know i'm not the only person that's aware of this phenomenon.