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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (296)	7/15/2000 8:46:57 PM
From: DD™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

marc: Coincidentally, Mark Leibovit, Editor and Publisher of the VRTrader.com, discussed the same scenario last night on NBR's Friday Market Monitor segment. Excerpt... KANGAS: Let's turn to the market in general. What kind of technical condition do you think of it-it's had a very nice comeback from the spring break. LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, this is that traditional summer rally, but of the four quarters of the year, the summer rally is really the most anemic of all of the four quarters in this rally. We make more of it than it really is. July is the best performing month of the quarter and we're getting a good July. But much of it is based on the expectation of the presidential election, based on interest rates not being raised anymore. My view, it's still a bear market rally, but you can trade it. KANGAS: But that's history. Let's look at your 2000 model forecaster right now and there it is. Here we're right in the middle of the year and you've had a pretty good record up till then as far as relative movement but you don't look like you're very positive for the rest of the year. LEIBOVIT: Well, based on the summer rally phenomenon, all that we're seeing is basically that the model indicated a recovery into summer. We're seeing that recovery now. And keep in mind, this model is based on the Dow Industrials, not NASDAQ. The same pattern worked in NASDAQ but was skewed down in one month because NASDAQ peaked out in March and the Dow peaked out in January. You might see the same effect this time, maybe a couple more weeks of the rally and then down. nbr.com DD