To: Maurice Winn who wrote (356 ) 7/15/2000 6:49:26 PM From: Ruffian Respond to of 543 Gilder on QCOM - posted today at Gildertech.com poster: GG date: 7/15/00 1:24:28 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me bring my limited market wisdom informally to bear on the Qualcomm issue. This is clearly a low point for the company. The media are focusing on a series of setbacks: In China where CDMA has become a politcal token, in Korea where NTT is trying to buy share for WCDMA, in the US where RF Microwave has announced a WCDMA peripheral chipset (without the critical CDMA modem), in the North American market with Voicestream's GSM technology perhaps being financed and extended by DeutcheTelecom. Add the apparent possibility that the national PCS spectrum footprint assembled by the now bankrupt NextWave will slip away to AWE or a GSM carrier and Qualcomm's position seems precarious. If you want to reshape your portfolio with a lower risk reward profile, you might want to lighten up on Qualcomm even at the cost of selling into bad news. Normally, however, bad news for a fundamentally strong company creates a selling trap and a buying opportunity. CDMA is the only available technology that uses all the spectrum band all the time and thus can accommodate the bursty data of internet links and offer bandwidth on demand. It is inherently the lowest power technology. It is the only technology that can use incidental pauses and multipath to enhance the signal, and enable elastic cells that adapt to changing traffic patterns (expanding cells along highways at rush hour and devoting suburban cells to data after sundown, for example). Because of this fundamental superiority, Ericsson, the world's leading proponent of GSM at the time, capitulated to Qualcomm and actually purchased its infrastructure division in order to the enter the CDMA market. Because of this fundamental superiority, the GSM group in Europe resolved on CDMA and only CDMA for third generation wireless in the face of passionate political opposition. In evaluating all the mostly political setbacks, keep in mind that Qualcomm already, alone in the world, has tested chipsets and systems that can supply megabit data and double voice capacity for the next era. In the end, wireless is a scarce bandwidth arena and an undershoot technology. With combinations of HDR data and 1x voice, Qualcomm is already two years ahead of WCDMA which does not promise remotely the bandwidth of HDR for several years. I believe that the carriers who adopt this technology are going to gain market share and the nearly 70 (million) CDMA customers today are going to experience superior service and Internet access. Surprises are coming in wireless local loop, in Latin America, and in satellite. I can assure you that I am not selling any of my famous Qualcomm shares. --GG Gildertech.com © 2000 Gilder Technology Group. All rights reserved.