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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (38372)	7/16/2000 7:30:51 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

As always JDN, the truth probably lies somewhere in between. It always pays to have balance in your portfolio. As I have repeatedly mentioned to Bambs, Eski and others that have posted such bearish remarks, comparing the market today to 1928 or 1987 doesn't work. The market is made up with a large percentage of retail investors that didn't exist back then. The retail investors are far more resilient. Furthermore they are responsible for a larger percentage of equity funding/investment than at any time in history - many banking on the fact that SSI will not be there for them. This IS their retirement accounts and with that any market softness will cause a buy on the dip as we saw when we went to 3100. The pendelum swung up to 5100 back to 3100 and now we're heading the other way. So, will there be a crash? Perhaps, but it'll be a buy opportunity. Just remember the sell high, buy low mantra if you want to maximize your gains. There will be no run for the exits because the money managers don't control the market any longer. Retail investors have a far greater impact that any time in history and they will buy the dips - some too soon but they have been the catalyst for market movements recently - not the money managers. The market is a supply and demand mechanism - fueled by a demand for equities which push securities higher. Supply of equities is more finite than the demand for them meaning equity prices are bid higher. If you have 10 houses priced at $200K and there are 20 people that want to bid on them the houses will go for more than $200K. Until money comes out of the market (fewer buyers for the houses than there are houses) in a major way equity prices will not crumble. I don't forsee this other than the periodic volatility we see which is simply money to the sidelines waiting to buy the dips... not money going towards paying retirement bills. Bambs makes the argument that once everything crashes that it'll take 10 years to get back to even. That's actually quite laughable. Today's markets move much MUCH faster than ever. Commuications in part are the basis for this effect. If there is a "crash" we'll return to the highs again in less than 12 months (witness this last episode). Furthermore if one looks at the macro factors driving the markets (supply of funding) - in 10 years baby boomers will be retiring and I would expect a net outflow by that time... that is PRECISELY when to be OUT of the market - not in it. Anyway... just some opinions from yet another view. My guess is that as we approach 4500 it might be a good time to pull some off the table and wait for the next dip. But a crash... I wouldn't count on it. FWIW I was pounding the table back in the Spring when the fed was raising saying that they have to be VERy careful that they don't overshoot becuase overshooting is far more dangerous than undershooting - so that part of the article that Eski posted I agree with. If the FED overshoots and earnings are impacted in a significant way it'll be a difficult thing to stop. So far the fed has done a good job. Inflation appears to be waning and yet earnings still look strong. Another 1/4 point in August won't be an issue I don't believe. OG