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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: im a survivor who wrote (25547)	7/16/2000 11:56:27 AM
From: RR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

Keith: JDSU 170 in January? 52% from here. 6 months out. Yes, I think JDSU could certainly be there. There are some factors to consider in your situation it seems to me. 1.) I've already posted my view on the stock movement due to SDLI. Maybe you've seen some of those posts. The arb play will slow JDSU down but with super earnings from SDLI, JDSU/ETEK, then it may run more than expected even with the arbitrage. 2.) August down turn. I'm not so sure anymore. It may not be as bad as we all thought. I have nothing to base that on other than listening to reports and reading stuff. While I think we will have a pullback in Aug/Sept, it may not be that bad. I still think we will have a huge 4th qtr. So, you mentioned the Aug pullback and I just wanted to mention that observation. 3.) The SDLI deal may be finished by Dec. If it goes through, JDSU goes up. If it does NOT go through, JDSU still goes up. Lot of discussion on this point on the JDSU thread. My point is, if the deal comes down one way or another in Dec, then JDSU will move up. That certainly would effect your decision on those Januarys. Some folks are already forecasting that the deal can't get done in 6 months, so who knows.... 4.) There are several variables, all could significantly influence your position. The time variable makes it even more difficult. So, I think you need to take a conservative view given these factors. I'm not suggesting you buy them back now. You need to make that decision. 6 months out is a lot of time, and you could have several opportunities to buy them back cheaper than what they are right now. Then, maybe not. I offer these comments to address the stock price, not whether to suggest you hold or buy the calls back. Further, the cc strategy offers you other alternatives as to action to take in January should the stock be at 200. The V-man knows those best. You could buy back and roll forward at the same time, for example. But, I am no cc expert and my intent was not to address the cc strategies. Good luck, my Friend. RR