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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SirWalterRalegh who wrote (1881)7/16/2000 11:59:58 PM
From: Spreck  Respond to of 12231
 
Doug & All that came to Miltons In Del Mar
It was great to have the people come and share there thoughts, winners, losers, and wisdom from this years Debacle in the markets.... Again the Silicon investor has shown the power that is posessed in numbers. The same stocks are still a topic of conversation,QCOM,JDSU,SDLI,& for Doug & Spreck "DIGL". Dell Aol Are no longer at the center. It seems diversification has become a new light for some. Others still play the power game of just a few stocks,hold em forever. My wife Sandi brought up the Harry Potter books and hot they are. She like those stocks that are involved in that area. For myself the hottest area of the moment,fiber optics. I am holding jdsu, avnx & a short term play on EPNY. I am also into tqnt & nvda.
It seems everyone had a bit to say on the lessons of the past 6 months, my comment coming from one radio stock pundit, that no one had any type of exit strategy and we all now seem to have a much shorter time horizon for stocks. Maybe not all of us, one person who had a very diversifies portfolio was truly a buy and hold long term winner. Small positions in many different stocks that did not frett market declines... Our numbers may be small but the power and wisdom of the group is immeasurable. Today was great day and thanks to all who attended. Looking forward to seeing everyone in six months.
Spreck



To: SirWalterRalegh who wrote (1881)7/18/2000 6:08:41 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 12231
 
<During the current QCOM quarter they were awarded a "chit" for $125,000,000. by the
US Govt (FCC) which could be used in variety of ways. My question is how and when will this appear on the QCOM statement and is this
material to all the EPS discussions?
>

This should just show up as slightly cheaper spectrum [which Q! can perhaps trade with NextWave, Leap or somebody in exchange for shares]. I suppose it just becomes an asset on the balance sheet somewhere, which won't make a big difference

Market Cap now = Umpty $$billion.
Add $125M for spectrum = Umpty $$billion.1

It's not like IP which goes into market cap at 1000x the cost of developing it. The spectrum chit is just a boring can of baked beans.

BUT it would be enough to buy ALL of the spectrum on sale in NZ today! 5 times over!!

There seems to be an all-time bargain basement spectrum auction going on in NZ, right now!! 4 x 20MHz 3G blocks are going to sell for about $3m by the look of it. It'll be selling to Vodafone, Telecom and Telstra [the 'separate development, segregated, apartheided' Maoris get the other block at 95% the cost of the other blocks] unless somebody else such as Leap Wireless Not International wakes up and nabs some pronto.

I know that crowded cities such as 12M population London cause air polluted with diesel particulates and WWeb photons whereas the more spacious 1M population Auckland breathes easy and is NOT dazzled by rows of basestation transmitters. Neverthelss, the spectrum seems cheap.

$35bn for 35M customers in the UK
$3M for 3M customers in NZ.

I guess that means we are going to enjoy cheap WWeb services as well as clean air and clean water.

It does beg the question as to just how much Q! should charge for royalties. Since most of the world's people live cheek by jowl in the big smokes of LA, London, Berlin, Beijing, Tokyo/Osaka, Mumbai, Cairo, Mexico City, Lima and swarming around Brazil, it means spectrum prices will be dictated by those cities.

As in the Mexican spectrum auctions, where Mexico City and other cities attracted serious money, whereas the outback attracted nearly nothing, the big bids will go to places where the spectrum advantages of CDMA, which squeezes petatrillions of photons into 1.25MHz will be essential.

Spectrum is being sold for all of NZ, not regions or cities, as Management Rights, for onselling to anyone, for 20 years.

What royalty level should Q! charge? 100% might mean, in NZ, that GSM and other spectrally wasteful technologies might be more economical. But since there are few people in NZ, too bad. In the UK, at $35bn, Vodafone and co absolutely have to get as much out of their spectrum as possible. So they MUST use CDMA by Q!

So 5% still seems way too cheap for 80% of the world's population, where the people are crowded up to within 10 2GHz wavelengths of each other. The waves will be a pulsing turmoil in those areas.

But even $35bn for 35M people is only $1000 per person, which is about $200 a year ROI. Which is not all that much. Certainly not enough to make people go and live in photonically quiescent locations like Auckland or Eketahuna.

Mqurice

PS: How about that North Pole stuff Jon found? Shipping through the Arctic! Just another benefit of the production of CO2 from people freeing Carbon from its eons long entombment. Imagine how many lives will be produced by all the CO2 flooding the earth's ecosystem once again! Now, the White Cliffs of Dover and other limestone around the world need to be ground up to free the Calcium, Carbon and Oxygen there so it too can live again. Some of it has been simply reformed into concrete roads and multistorey buildings, but at least it is contributing to life instead of just being buried in the ground.

Rick, I'm glad you enjoy the odd rant [well, not odd, but you know what I mean].