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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (8102)	7/16/2000 10:12:27 PM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Hello, Gary. Here's my opinion, FWIW. I'll start by saying that I am probably he who knows least here. Suggest if you are interested in Lor you follow both the Lor and G* threads if you don't already as most of the discussion seems to get directed to the other thread, being that, yes, Lor is very tightly tied to G* with ownership in the 40%+ range and pledged assets. <<If GSTRF goes belly up (hypothetical) will LOR tank>> I think "yes"; temporarily anyway. I think the psychology of a G* bust would override any valuation rationale. <<is it built into current stock price?>> I think "yes" on a value of the parts basis but the perception is that Lor is G* so the stock would still tank, IMO, considering the anchor effect G* has had on Lor to-date. <<can LOR climb without GSTRF climbing?>> Simplistically, I think "it's unlikely". I bought Lor because I believe that G* will be successful, Gary. I also like the underlying (non-G) core business at Lor as a safety net should G be a royal bust. I like participating in G* via Lor for the cushion of the other lines of business. Others prefer the zing of the pure play via Gstrf. However, if I thought G* was going to fizzle out I would not be in Lor at this point. And there ain't no denyin' that I'm underwater on my Lor at this point. I won't pretend that I know anywhere near what many on the Lor and G* threads know, so I again encourage you to read both threads, if you aren't already. You'll find some good analyses about the sum of the parts value of Lor's segments and the value x-G. Still, for the foreseeable future, I think Lor and G will be tied at the hip. From my view, it's a high risk position and I wouldn't put my life savings into it. Still, the potential is too inviting for me not to participate. It's a fascinating business. Good luck! .........VVVVVVVVVVVV

To: Gary105 who wrote (8102)	7/17/2000 6:09:04 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

I think that LOR's current stock price completely discounts a GSTRF bankruptcy. LOR and GSTRF have roughly an equal ownership of Globalstar (about 40% each), yet the current LOR market cap is only about twice the GSTRF market cap, even though LOR's non-GSTRF assets can arguably be valued at roughly $14 per share -- at least according to an analyst appearing on NBR a few days ago. Although a GSTRF bankruptcy is possible, a complete demise of G* is highly unlikely, since the low operational cost of the G* system makes it highly desirable (unlike Iridium). A post-BK G* operator can make a handsome profit by selling air time at a few pennies per minute, if not burdened by the GSTRF debt. This is competitive with non-satellite mobile air time prices. Therefore, it is very likely that the satellite constellation will survive a GSTRF bankruptcy and LOR will continue managing it and even expanding it. For these reasons, I consider LOR at current prices an almost sure thing -- it reminds me of COMS at 20 last year, complete with the characterization as a "struggling" company in the press. I have also loaded up on GSTRF bonds when they were selling in the twenties (they have recently risen up into the thirties), since I believe that they will be worth at least 30 cents on the dollar in a GSTRF BK situation. I do have a position in G* as well, but I do consider THAT speculative. Kyros