To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (35788 ) 7/17/2000 11:30:56 AM From: Tony Viola Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 70976 Brian, I like Carl Johnson's views here a lot more than I did in the early days if SI when he was very bearish on Intel. I don't remember how he was on the rest of the semis. Hope he's right about the broader applications for semis now making us more resilient to downturn. There's been a lot of talk about that, here and all over, no doubt about it. You'd hope "they'd" learn to not over-capacity, etc., again. I asked that question myself of Wilf Corrigan at LSI's 1999 stockholders' meeting, like would the industry know better the next time around? He said 'probably not.' I hope he was kidding.One such analyst, Carl Johnson, president of INFRASTRUCTURE, a semiconductor industry research firm, describes the report as a "macroeconomic gut call sprinkled with fairy dust." Johnson did give the report credit for pointing out risks to the semiconductor industry. However, he said, all the doom and gloom cited in it "doesn't deter the longer-term outlook." Johnson, instead, believes the semiconductor industry is in the early part of a 12-to-18-month growth cycle. "In six to nine months we could have a slowdown, but based on today's evidence, that's not the case," Johnson said. Is it different this time? Could the semiconductor industry have entered a new, more resilient, age? During previous downturns, the PC chip market, which represented 40 percent of total chip shipments, dominated the industry, said Johnson. "Now the chip sector is diversified from the PC era," he said.The rise of the Internet, wireless communications and other new markets has boosted demand for semiconductors on the whole. As a result, Johnson argues, the industry is now much more diversified and, therefore, more resilient to downturn. The industry is less likely to be affected by a downturn in a single market, such as flash memory. The only exception would be an economic downturn, which could cut demand for semiconductors.