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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (3056)	7/17/2000 5:55:01 PM
From: Robert Griffin Gregory	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3299

Ram, I listened to first hour of conference call (through the Lehman analyst's question), and feel very positive about AFCI's future. Here are some of my observations about the call: Many analysts praised AFCI for their outstanding revenue growth. Charge was for the GVN acquisition, and would have been 12 cents, as opposed to 11 cents. State of Business: DOMESTIC: largest chunk so far; SBC has greatest potential, while Winstar is biggest customer, a customer with aggressive growth plans. SBC has requested customization of AFCI product, so Q3 revenues should be flat, while ramp up in Q4 and into 2001 is expected to be noteworthy. Sprint represented 13.7 MM in revenues in Q2. INTERNATIONAL: business with South Africa, Central and Latin America. believes that in a year or so, international biz will exceed domestic. CUSTOMERS: Major: Alltel sbc FON South Africa telecom Tellabs Winstar REVENUE: Domestic accounted for 88% of revenue in Q2: Winstar 23.3.% (Winstar calls AFCI their fave vendor); FON 13.3% COMPONENT SUPPLY: tight in certain areas (flash memory, certain processors, relays, laser diodes); this is industry wide problem; AFCI forging relationships with suppliers, and considering higher inventory levels COMPETITION: LU NT ALCATEL MARCONI GROWTH: Bulk is non-Winstar, non-SBC. Once SBC ramps up (Q4 and out), non-Winstar revenue will grow much larger GVN: acquisition has resulted in minimal revenues, but in Q4 AFCI expect much stronger revenues from the acquisition. GOALs: to attain at least one more of the 3 remaining Regional Bells. BUSINESS: AFCI has luxury of being selective. International opportunity is prodigious. Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America. South Africa is sending in strong orders, and forecast is for that to continue. Q3: Comfortable with what they see. 3 weeks into quarter and things are looking good. Similar to Q2. Strong orders. Excited about prospects. Hope some of this is helpful to readers. I'm not a financial sophisticate, but I have to say the tone of the conference call was very nice: almost all of the questioners congratulated AFCI on an outstanding quarter. Sounds to me as if Q3 is going to be fine, but nothing exceptional, and then beginning in Q4 and into 2001, "Katy bar the door." I plan on holding and adding to my position. Short term price fluctuations are really immaterial. Look at this stock's value in six months, and I practically guarantee we'll be smiling all the way to the bank. Griff