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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eplace who wrote (1015)	7/17/2000 10:02:35 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: The stock could very well be in for a surprise move to the upside. I'm going to gamble this week on a few more options Ed, I picked up 100 contracts today, will get another 100 tommorrow, and somewhere around 100-300 on Wednesday. Estimates are for roughly flat with last quarter and this is what's different: 1) Flash is 1/3 revenues. Guidance from AMD is high single digit growth. 2) Last quarter saw 1.2 million Athlons, guidance from AMD is 1.8 million for this quarter. A recent report from a 3rd party group stated that AMD was out selling Intel 12 to 1 at 1 Ghz; and 3 to 1 at 900 Mhz and above. This is a license to print money. The 1 Ghz chip cost the same to make as a 500 Mhz chip roughly, but sells for $1000 instead of $50 per chip. The money comes from the high end, this is how Intel has managed to stay on top so long and have fat margins. 3) K6-2's will be down as more capacity has been focused at the Athlon. These chips go for an average of $50 or so. On top of that, there are 172 million shares out standing and the shareholders approved 750 million shares about a month ago. A split hasn't been announced, but the shares are there for a 2 for 1 or for a 3 for 1. The day after SSB issued their report, AMD announced that they were buying back $400 million in debt so you would have to assume the cash position is looking good. Ironically, SSB downgraded AMD the day of the report. The next day when AMD announced the buyback, SSB was the underwriter. Also, rather ironically, the deadline for the buyback is Wednesday before AMD reports. chic has spoken and he's going long in SIZE on AMD July options.....