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To: LPS5 who wrote (8335)	7/17/2000 10:16:08 PM
From: LPS5	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12617

Another comment: ``A year ago everyone was convinced they were going to take over the world,'' Napoli said. ``That has not happened.'' That's true. Bob is right. ECNs came from nowhere in late 1996/early 1997 to consume between a quarter and a third of the total OTC trading volume in a few years. And they're still growing in volume and becoming still cheaper. But, since the media and public only discovered them last year, and since they haven't taken 100% of the market yet - naturally, one can plainly see how they've failed miserably. LPS5 In Napoli's defense, though, I do see a major shakeout within a few years, with no more than four ECN/exchanges surviving independently in the future. This is not a condemnation of the ECN model though - rather, it's a product of the typical business cycle: opportunity, innovation, late movers, consolidation (by merger and failure), and maturity.