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Technology Stocks : DSS: DLT finally open for trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dr_elis who wrote (278)	7/18/2000 6:17:42 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 488

Michael, ADIC jumped in response to a rumor that EMC would take them over. I find this hard to believe, since Mike Rutteger (sp?) said just a couple of weeks ago that he believed that tape would be dead in a few years, but rumors are rumors, and when someone wants to take a stock up, they do what they have to do (so to speak). Personally, while I have a modest stake in ADIC currently, I would prefer for it stay down for awhile, I'm not ready to add significantly to it. Wait for a month or two at these levels or even lower, that will make me happy. Especially if there is some nice tax-loss selling in Oct that takes it into single digits; unlikely, but still possible. Which leads me to DSS. I don't know what is going there. The last time I spoke with the company (about a month ago or so), they were still saying that SDLT would be out in Aug or Sept. Now this may mean Sept. 30, who knows. I'm guessing that this wasn't a barn burner of a quarter. Both ADIC nor OVRL, both strong DLT library shops, are showing wear in terms of their stock price. While Exabyte was ecstatic publicly about their library revenues, those revenues went from 11 to 16 million dollars, and it was the beginning of a brand new product cycle that they are hoping will save the company. They did 2.5 million of DLT revenue, nothing to write home about. They did less than 14 million of Mammouth libraries, which I presume was mostly M2, again nothing to write home about, IMO. Libraries I think may be in a holding pattern until the SDLT/LTO product cycles really get going, and the stocks may be stuck until those cycles get clearer in people's minds, barring of course a takeover. So this is a circuitous way of say that I doubt that there will be any meaningful surprise one way or the other in terms of operations. SNAP is too small still to make much of a difference, DLT should be flat to down somewhat, depending on product mix, media maybe showed a little growth, and the library business will probably show growth but maybe not the 35 or 40 percent that we hope for, given the transition issues that plague the entire sector. If the do 26 or 27, that will be fine with me, but.... The only surprise may be in what they say about SDLT. I hope that they say that they will be shipping this quarter. Exabyte expressed public skepticism about this in their CC. We will know in less than 48 hours. That is a more important issue than beating the number this quarter, IMHO. Hoping for the best, Sam