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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (28246)	7/18/2000 11:16:11 AM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 54805

The trade association of cell phone makers (CTIA) has new guidelines that require these makers to come packaged with information concerning their radiation levels. Sounds good for CDMA, but the fine print of the ruling reveals that cell phone makers may be able to get by with only posting a reference to a www site which will contain the actual figures. The article in the Denver Post is confusing because it contradicts itself, about par for the media.

To: gdichaz who wrote (28246)	7/18/2000 1:36:47 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, << A specific point, my interest is in current spectrum. You seem to concentrate on "standards" for new spectrum. >> I am, as a practical matter, more concerned right now, about current spectrum, than new spectrum. That is where we will derive revenue to carry us through this fiscal year and next. My interest in new spectrum relates to the fact that QCOM stock has suffered significantly as a result of attention being focused on the fact that the dominant mode of 3G operation will be Direct Spread. That should not be a surprise except that even IS-95 carriers are considering it. << What further standards approval is essential for the use of HDR and/or 1xEV in current spectrum? >> 3GPP2 needs to complete the specification and submit to TIA for standards approval. A standards requirement document has been published. That is a good start. << The marketplace seems to be proceeding toward these in current spectrum next year >> Next year? With no standard yet in place? I am counting insignificant revenue if any from HDR and/or 1xEV in the upcoming QCOM fiscal year. Are you planning on any? 1xMC is another matter. The Korean rollout is pretty exciting and perhaps we will catch revenue from the States as well next year. In the context of your statement, I presume that by "the marketplace" you are referring to the IS-95 carrier base? Do you see any indications of any other portion of the "marketplace proceeding toward these in current spectrum next year"? Perhaps you think HDR and/or 1xEV potentially could be overlayed over an existing GSM/MAP network? That would be the fulfillment of the elusive "CDMA Overlay Dream" we all share. I certainly don't want to rule this out. I am not taking it to the bank right now, however. In this case (overlay of a GSM/MAP network) wouldn't it be likely that ETSI would need to manage the standard? << Tests are underway >> Good. I am looking forward to the trials of HDR and 1xEV that will follow. Of course the good part will be commercial deployment. << Are you saying the Europeans can successfully bring this momentum to a full stop outside of Europe? >> No. Again, I am assuming that you are talking about existing IS-95 carriers and hopefully new carriers building out a network greenfields. << Still not clear whether you are talking about inside Europe only, or the entire world? >> The world. << The world outside Europe, particularly Asia and the America's are where the focus is for CDMA and that is where the Europeans need to block HDR and 1xEV, no? The question is, can manipulation of standards relating to current spectrum bring both to a halt in the marketplace? >> Would you please explain to me what you mean by manipulation of standards? Do you mean working in committee for open standards is manipulation of a standard? Perhaps you mean someting else? << New spectrum is an entirely different area. And is that where you see the European roadblocks effective? >> That is where I see the lack of a CDMA standard that takes maximum advantage of IMT-2000 spectrum hurting Qualcomm today, based on the investment communities uncertainty about its future potential in the 3rd Generation of mobile wireless telephony. This will clear up in time and a 3xMC standard will help, IMO. Perhaps I am obtuse but I don't see this as a Europe v. Qualcomm thing. I see this as a clash between a company with an established value chain promoting a proprietary open architecture, and an industry moving increasingly towards a converged committee based open architecture. Its classic gorilla game stuff. Meantime, I am keeping my fingers crossed for $.28 tomorrow, no warnings about the fiscal year, and a positive conference call. Keep yours crossed for the same, please. - Eric -