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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (331)	7/18/2000 10:23:06 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 10065

Wally However, when push comes to shove, their last line tells the story to me: If the annualized rate remains above the 3.5% range, it is likely only a matter of time before the Fed moves again. P.S.- IMHO, so far, the 'mixed' economic data will probably cause the FOMC to increase rates again on 22 Aug., & then wait till after the election (at the earliest), to reassess whether their actions are indeed slowing the economy. Granted the 'core' rate is still under control. However, who "pays" the core rate? I will respectfully disagree. I still see, based on this data, no rate increase in August. Remember there are previous rate increases that have not been felt throughout the economy. Even more important is that the Federal Reserve sees energy prices as variable, in this report drivers in the Midwest were effected by higher energy prices the most, and core prices as the major measure in this report. My analysis: the core rate under control equals no rate increase.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (331)	7/18/2000 1:34:06 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

...and on the labor front: Major layoffs seem on increase Growing softness in job market seen, expert says By Gary Strauss, USA TODAY A rising number of companies are planning major layoffs. But are the cuts fresh evidence of a slowing economy or isolated cases of companies trying to boost earnings and appease Wall Street? Perhaps both, economists say. ''Despite the concerns that the Federal Reserve has about shortages in the workforce, companies are managing to get by with fewer people,'' says economist Maria Fiorini Ramirez of MFR Forecast. Claims for unemployment benefits surged to a seasonally adjusted 319,000 last week, the highest in more than a year, mostly because of a rise in autoworkers idled by annual plant shutdowns. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remains near a 30-year low. Yet, combined with the spate of companies announcing layoffs across several industries, there is a growing softness in the job market that appears to have staying power, says Huntington National Bank economist Jim Coons. Monday, Bank of America said it would consider sizable job cuts to boost earnings. And Merrill Lynch reportedly is considering a similar move, although officials would not comment on the report. Among companies announcing layoffs this month: Honeywell International, 6,000 jobs, or about 5% of its workforce, on top of an earlier plan to eliminate 11,000 jobs. Hush Puppies shoemaker Wolverine World Wide, 1,400 workers, or 25% of its North and Central American workforce. Medical products maker Boston Scientific, 1,900 workers, or about 8% of its U.S. workforce. Software maker Datastream Systems, 100 employees, or 10% of its U.S. workforce. Sony's Music Entertainment division, 500 employees, or 4% of its global workforce. The cuts come at a time when corporate downsizing had been at a three-year low, says Jim Challenger of job consultant Challenger Gray & Christmas. ''We might be seeing signs that a turnaround is beginning to happen,'' he says. ''Whether the job cuts are handled at once or by attrition matters little. They're saying they aren't going to refill those jobs, so they're still downsizing.'' Typically, companies put off layoffs until year's end. No longer. ''In the new economy, it's done earlier. Why wait? Signal your workforce that if you want to find a job, go ahead,'' says Rajeev Dhawan of UCLA Anderson Forecast. Still, job growth is extremely strong for skilled machinists and those with computer-related skills, Challenger says. That's even true for the Internet sector, which has slashed 5,400 jobs this year. Signs of a tight labor market remain, even at layoff-minded Boston Scientific. It's taking an unusual approach of giving retention bonuses to those employees who remain 12 to 18 months while it restructures and ultimately slims down.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (331)	7/19/2000 6:24:47 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally: These OPEC guys now have zero credibility. They give lip service to lowering oil prices but their actions suggest they are interested in keeping prices higher than their stated goal. Looks like Justa was right -- greed is ramping hard. Short term, it is up to those with production capacity to cheat. Intermediate term, these guys could change their minds again. But like you said I would not count your oil before it is pumped and delivered!!! Prudential's Kildow on OPEC News Boosting Oil Prices: Comment New York, July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Comment by Aaron Kildow, an energy analyst at Prudential Securities in New York, on statement by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries President Ali Rodriguez, who today said no increase in oil output is needed for now since the group's price index dropped below its $28-a-barrel ceiling. On OPEC: ``I don't see how the (OPEC basket) price lost $1.38 from Friday to Monday,'' he said, referring to the index price's drop below $28 a barrel yesterday after holding above that level for 19 days. ``They're calling the game off and restarting the clock again; I'm a bit surprised by this. They did this before when they said it was not a moving average (but instead) was consecutive days, and then they pull this shenanigan. It questions how reliable these policies are: not very.'' ``The Saudis aren't getting the same air time; they play by the book. The Saudis are doing their own thing right now -- they feel the market needs extra oil and they're going to have to do it one way or another.'' The dismissal of the production increase means ``the Saudis will have to go back to Venezuela's old ways and pump more than their quota. They'll have to cheat.'' ``It's created an awkward tension'' within OPEC, he said. ``There's still the opportunity for OPEC to make some amendment to their statement today.'' Jul/18/2000 19:56 ET