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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Kibler who wrote (1898)	7/18/2000 5:45:52 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2561

Jim, I am sticking to USV preferred, until 2 or 3 more quarterly earnings reports go by and I can tell what the core of USV's earnings are. I bought HRP at 6-1/2 to 6-5/8 last week. I think HRP is valuing SNH at 0.00 for purposes of the dividend, and I'll take a 12% dividend in pure office buildings under these conditions. I am trying to buy TEE as they announced the dividend today. Last time a determined seller pushed it down another point before the dividend bounced, so I'm hoping to get some in the 20-1/2 to 21 range. NHP is another REIT with a dividend coming soon that I am hoping to get just below 14. I think REITs are getting toppy for the short term, but the action has to show this first. I imagine a pullback towards 330 would bring in some new money. Interestingly, VTR is starting to be strongly accumulated. VTR cut it's dividend to 0 last year, but the cash flow must be starting again. If so, then many of the health care REITs in trouble may not drop much further. MT had a big run a few weeks back, and even ETT has recovered 50% of it's latest drop. SNH talked about getting some properties back from bankruptcy and has been under accumulation this week. I wonder if it's time to take baby steps in accumulating some of these REITs. LTC, OHI, MT, ETT, SNH, GLR, NHI, NHR, VTR are among the crushed ones that could lose another 50% or make 100%. HCP, NHP, HCN are the more solid ones that may be 10-25% underpriced. For nimble trading, FCH and MHX should have support near 20 and 19-1/4. PP should be supported at 24, especially since CLI was worth 27-28 before the merger was announced and is now under 26. regards, Richard