Wow....not thats alot to ponder over.
Honestly, it's interesting to look at the correlation between climbing methods/attitudes vs investing methods/attitudes.
First, your statement <<your posts indicate that when you invest you think there is less than a 50/50 chance you will prevail.>>
I guess with all the whining I've been doing, it certainly may seem that way. I have made many referances such as " as soon as I buy, it will go down". I think many of us are guilty of this at some time or another, but honestly, it does not reflect my true attitude. It simply reflects a short term attitude, predicated by unseemingly bad luck. To be quite honest, I feel like every investement I make, will be a winner. Naturally, this wont happen, but nonetheless, why buy a stock, if you think it will go down. The last fewmonths have been bad, and yes, it seems like everything I do backfires, but if I truly believed things would not work out, I would not execute, as rick says.
Climbing and investing. There are several methods of climbing, all bring with it different extents of strategy, fear and etc, etc....Top roping is of course the easiest. Your as safe as safe can be. Your attitude is no fear and make every move with confidence. Sport climbing is next. Much riskier, with levels of fear that change as you clip your bolts. Your strategy will be different, as will your willingness to take chances, depending on where you are in relation to your next bolt that needs to be clipped. Then you have trad. Nothing but gear. No bolts to clip, no nothing. Just you, the rock and a beltfull of gear. You need to place your gear in the rock and then clip in the gear. naturally, this is the riskiest, the best, the funnest, the scariest type of climbing. In all of the above scenarios, you can co-relate an investment strategy. Nice simple ltb&h strategy of quality value stocks, all the way to writing naked calls/puts, playing the otc's and etc....
As with climbing, investing all depends on what your doing. Lets face it. When I buy 100 shares of intel to put away for a few years, there is no fear, no adrenaline rush, no apprehension, no sitting on the edge of your chair every day and etc, etc.... Very much like top ropping a 5.6 climb...yet, if I am heavy on margin, buying speculative bullshit and getting killed, well that brings out alot of emotions, fear, adrenaline and etc, as compared to being on trad lead of a 14d. Every situation calls for a different strategy, different emotions and etc, etc....
One thing is certain. If your on a tough climb, the last piece of gear you placed was shitty, but it's all you could find, your fixing to do a 14d move. If you fail, it will be most heinous. Your best ally is.....fear. Fear has gotten more climbers past a problem then anything else I can think of.
Anyway, as you said, you could really write a book on how the two co-relate. Most rock climbers are risk takers by nature. Adrenaline rush hunters. My investing methods have always been the same. I have always gone at it hard. never afraid to execute. I take control and make it happen. To be honest, I was quite succesful ( how could anybody have not been succesful the last few years!!! )until this past year. Things were going so good, I should have realized that last piece of gear may not hold<ggg>. Instead of going easy, I blew for dyno on full margin and got my ass whipsawed. Because of the ass whooping I took, I have been trying to be more cautious by nature....no different then after a bad fall, you are always more cautious. Well, I have altered my trading strategy to try and incorproate a little more of the safety net. I am using margin, but trying to keep it limited. I am writing some cc's on some stuff, converting to leaps on some stuff and etc, etc....but at the same time, I am still being very risky with certain plays that will either be huge home runs or nasty 40ft falls onto the ledge below.
Anyway....gotta run for now.......By the way, are there any other climbers lurking around here? Most folks think "no way", but you would be amazed not only at what you could do, but how much you would like it. I have seen climbing change alot of lives.
Have a great afternoon
Keith |
