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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (344)	7/18/2000 3:12:29 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Justa : If Bazdarich's forecast of 1.5% Q2 GDP is on the mark, there will be nothing to celebrate. Recession will be right around the corner with those rate hikes waiting to work themselves through the economy In 1986, I believe, there was a recession-2 down quarters of GNP growth not even noticed in the economy until after the fact. The problem I am having in believing the significant bear case is a matter of degree. If you believe earnings will suffer going forward into 2001 you have to believe there will be a significant impact from rates to see the equity market turndown significantly. Is it not possible the affect on earnings could be more modest? Is it not possible the affects will be more moderate than some, on this board, believe? and Is it not possible the rising rates will create a stronger market in the months ahead if inflation is sniffed out? I think it may.