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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T Bowl who wrote (345)	7/18/2000 3:05:53 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

T Bowl Thanks for the response. the Core CPI YTY trend has reversed it's 6 year downtrend. This is the most worrying aspect of all of this to me. The question is is the reversal significant or insignificant going forward. It seems insignificant to me as of this moment. It seems more of an insignificant creep up, if you will, which is being overstated in the media or by those presenting a bearish view. The interm and crude goods inflation data is still dark and gloomy. The Federal Reserve strips out these numbers hence the emphasis on the core cpi. Further, higher energy prices slows rather than increases economic activity. I think of it as a consumption tax slowing down other sectors of the economy. Fundamentally I have seen absolutely nothing out there that makes me comfy with what we are heading into. Strong earnings, a growing GDP, full employment, a relatively low inflation rate, a pre-emptive fed, can work in either direction but makes me comfortable will we have a soft landing. I personally am not willing to take a risk of a long position in the market. Good or bad times there is always a risk of being in the market short or long term. Time heals alls wounds. Get caught in a bear market in here and if you stay invested it will hardly matter 10 years from now.