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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4383)	7/18/2000 6:09:36 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 436258

nice article! certainly supports the idea the US would do everything in its power to keep a strong dollar..... raising rates more?? or just badgering our partners on the "you owe us for Asia, forever" platform. regards J

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4383)	7/18/2000 6:37:07 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

nice find

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4383)	7/18/2000 6:49:19 PM
From: John Graybill	Respond to of 436258

ho ho, those guys better drive a different route to work tomorrow.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4383)	7/18/2000 8:27:59 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

i read an article in the Economist a few months back that basically presented the same argument, i.e. that a confluence of non-permanent factors was responsible to keep inflation in check. to me inflation is anyway not solely determined by the rate of change of the CPI , however ridiculous the method of its calculation -g-. inflation is traditionally better defined by the rate of growth of the money supply, or rather the percentage by which it exceeds nominal GDP growth. in truth, inflation has been huge...and the productivity boom coupled with the confluence of one time factors has masked that. it is quite visible in the stock market however...

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4383)	7/18/2000 8:42:25 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 436258

Well As Long As We Continue to Have Cheap Oil, A Strong Dollar and a Weak Asia - No Problem Ho! Ho! Ho! The paper written by two bank research economists, said falling import prices -- aided by cheap oil, a strong dollar and Asia's recent financial crisis -- played the key role in capping U.S. inflation over the past few years

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4383)	7/19/2000 3:55:59 AM
From: Dave-in-MarinCa	Respond to of 436258

Tom's post <http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14064230> leads to Mr. Moto's observation; "The dollar exchange rate appears tethered to the level of share-asset prices as they rise. The dollar can, however, begin to weaken and fall away. It's then that a surge of bank money lifts share-asset prices, and subsequently the dollar exchange rate fixed to the lift" Moto's work highlights the Feds dilema in terms of attempting to control inflation in the midst of the bubble. Moto's graph of "Reserve Impact of Temporary Operations" and interpretation shows the extraordinary efforts the FOMC is taking to hold things together. In order to attract additional foreign investment into the US to support the dollar, they're forced to continue to liquify the M2 to maintain equity prices which concurrently drives up personal consumption and inflation. They are then forced to maintain a tightening bias on the feds funds rate to control spending and inflation. How long can this go on??? I believe Greenspan knows the clock is ticking...on July 12, he stated "....To repeat, we do not, and probably cannot, know the precise nature of the next international financial crisis. That there will be one is as certain as the persistence of human financial indiscretion..." <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000712.htm>. What/when will the event occur? Will US financial indiscretion trigger the "event"? Mind boggling!!!