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To: Rarebird who wrote (56468)	7/19/2000 12:04:57 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 116893

well, out of curiosity i have followed Prechter's global market updates (stocks, commodities, rates) for over a year, and i'd like to point out that he called EVERY single market correctly, except the US stock market. so i wouldn't write Prechter off that quickly. btw, in the late seventies he called for a massive bull market, and people laughed at him because he was about 4 years early with his call. i agree that Al's printing exercise should support stocks. but you see, this year's printing extravaganza differs from last years regarding its backdrop. i think it's specifically designed to keep the credit bubble from imploding. note, inverted yield curve, credit spreads at panic levels, negative real rates and more junk bond defaults than new junk bond issuance are not the signs of a healthy credit market. then there's the fact that the rest of the world recovering puts increasing pressures on raw materials prices and capital resources...just take a look at LME inventories, they speak for themselves. this will lead to even bigger trade deficits in the foreseeable future. also, up until recently there were about three bears left in the stock market...we had some of the worst sentiment data in the history of the market. yesterday was also an important cycle turning point and the massive margin debt pile still awaits deleveraging - the 40% NAZ swoon barely dented it. complacency is rife...