Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kachina who wrote (82426)	7/19/2000 8:56:19 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Respond to of 132070

K, >>Tech will fly. Please define "Tech". Joan

To: Kachina who wrote (82426)	7/20/2000 7:28:12 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Kachina: For years, I have argued that the best bargain with respect to a PC purchase resides with the "local cloner". Better price for equivalent equipment for starters, but more importantly, local service for a high maintenance item. I have never understood why the "direct sales" model (a la Dell) works, but there is no accounting for the stupidity of the herd, nor for the power of superior marketing. Buying a "name brand" PC also makes little sense at this end, given the fact that the boxes all contain the same components, and the failure rate of name brand boxes is similar to locally assembled boxes and exposes the purchaser to truly atrocious service to boot. That said, you appear to have missed the main point, which is that business sales have fallen off a cliff. Business PC sales have historically represented 2/3rds of total PC sales. That is one heck of a big fraction to see vanish in a short period of time. I also pointed out that inventories are soaring and while that has occurred in the past, the method by which those inventories have been cleared out in the past, price wars, will not be very effective in accomplishing this in the current fast-rising glut. This is not old news. This current stock market's very foundation appears to me to be based on an unshakeable belief in technology, particularly the PC/semi sector. Look at the staggering over-ownership of the tech stock "darlings" as well as their respective stunning PEs to confirm this. What happens when these tech darlings finally run out of accounting gimmicks to mask the emerging problems and start owning up to the fact that the exciting growth part of the PC sales cycle is past history? I agree with your comments that new and lower PC ASP price points are being set, but I have commented on this many times in the past. I do not share your enthusiasm for the expected longer term impact of the cell-phone/palm-PC-type devices. Here are my reasons. Every manufacturer and his granny is trying to partner up a cell phone with something else, to differentiate products in an increasingly saturated cell phone market (cell phone plus GPS, cell phone plus net access, cell phone plus digital info forwarding, etc.). Personally, I see the cell phone market as following the PC market towards full market saturation, but perhaps a year or two in trail. The main problem is that a large percentage of the population already owns a cell phone and really does not have a pressing reason to access the net while on the road (stock quote access is the main driver and few people need this on a high frequency basis). For those who do have this need, the keyboard requirement converts a pocket device into a back pack situation. The service is also not cheap for the average guy or gal. Most of us can wait until we get home to access the net. Best, Earlie