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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LindyBill who wrote (28364)7/19/2000 8:25:08 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
>> But I think Mr. Market will be very happy tomorrow with SNDK!

Don't count on it, Bill. Mr. Market needs to take his lithium. Until then, he's totally unpredictable. Just look at how he reacted to SSTI's blowout.

I'd like to think there's a rational relationship between performance and valuation, but in the short term, we can't count on it.

uf



To: LindyBill who wrote (28364)7/19/2000 8:45:44 PM
From: shamsaee  Respond to of 54805
 
I listened to the CC and it was pretty clear that short term they will be under some pressure with revenues and earnings.I was expecting only q4 but buy the sounds of it maybe q1 2001 also.They are kind of stuck while the carriers making the upgrade to 1x and korea slowdown has come at the worst time IMHO.I hope they guided down with some room to spare so we might even get a positive surprise next quarter. .

They were very honest and I think, if one was going to ignore the noise and follow the relevant issues in the upcoming months,The cross licensing of GSM IPR for wcdma asics with NOK/MOT will be the tell factor on the future.

I would like to believe,most of the carriers are going to go with CDMA2000 but that seems unlikely and wcdma is going to be the dominant form.

They seemed almost certain that they will dominate the wcdma asics business as well.One thing that I never knew was that the royalty with the bigger costumers stops at a certain level of sales volume and is not an endless 5%.

I am so heavily invested that it makes no sense to buy more.However should the stock go down from here, that is probably the lowest you will ever get it at.I also think next year will be a huge year for them and better even there after.
IMHO If the market takes a turn for the worse,it is one of the safest places to keep your money.

On the positive side should a deal with NOK or sudden china unicom commitment to CDMA2000(would not count on this one) then 150 will be back very quickly.

PS they did not include investment gains to the earnings unlike some other companies we know. 2.2 bil in cash is what I heard.



To: LindyBill who wrote (28364)7/19/2000 10:25:01 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 54805
 
Lindy,

Re: Qualcom Q3

<< Another "ho-hummer" earnings report out of Q >>

More "ho-hummer" than ever. <g>

<< Nothing there to make me get back in yet >>

Nothing there to make me get out yet (anymore than I already have). I'm at 9.9% of portfolio on same amount of shares that were 20% when I finished bringing it down in April.

It is still, IMO, the best wireless play on the street medium to long haul.

Wireless is a cool sector right now. Should heat up by year end which is about when I think we will get some NOK news. I can't think of any bad news we have not been advised of and chipsets for US handset shipments could offset the Korean shortfall in Q4.

<< Mr. Market will not be too happy tomorrow with Q, I think >>

I think your right.

>> Qualcomm Meets Expectations

July 19, 2000
by Rex Crum
upside.com

It was steady as she goes for San Diego-based Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) today as the company, best known for its wireless phone technologies, met analyst expectations for its third quarter.

Qualcomm reported earning of 27 cents a share, a figure in line with a survey of analysts done by First Call Corp., compared to 22 cents a share for the same period in 1999. Pro forma net income was $218 million, a 40 percent increase over the $156 million Qualcomm earned during the quarter last year.

Revenue hit $714 million for the quarter, off a bit from analysts' expectations of $750 million. Still, the figure was 11 percent higher than the $645 million Qualcomm recorded in the third quarter a year ago.

In a conference call with analysts, Irwin Jacobs, Qualcomm chief executive officer and chairman, attributed much of the company's success in the quarter to increased mobile phone chip sales and royalties from CDMA technology licenses.

Jacobs spoke confidently about his company's prospects in the wireless market, especially with regard to the growth of so-called third generation, or 3G technologies such as W-CDMA and cdma2000 during the coming months.

"The evolution of CDMA is moving well," Jacobs said. "It's a win wherever someone chooses to deploy W-CDMA as every standard is based on Qualcomm standards."

Jacobs said that market researchers estimate that by 2001 there will be nearly 100 million wireless phones that use CDMA-based technologies, up from about 70 million in use today.

The company's optimism follows a period of near-daily stock market soap operatics for Qualcomm over the last few months. Qualcomm shares were hit hard after reports that Chinese telecom firm China Unicom Ltd. (CHU) would not adopt CDMA technology and also following uncertainty over what 3G technology several South Korean telecom companies would use. Those decisions are still seen as up in the air.

South Korea is Qualcomm's largest market and is estimated to make up 20 percent to 25 percent of the CDMA phones in use around the world.

But Qualcomm received some good news this week when patent courts in Japan and Europe upheld Qualcomm patent rights on several aspects of CDMA. Nokia Corp. (NOK), Ericsson Telephone Co. (ERICY) and Nippon Telephone and Telegraph Corp. (NTT) had challenged several of the patents in Japan.

Jacobs added that he expects the South Korean market to remain diverse enough to support various technologies and increase business for Qualcomm.

"Any of the (third generation) phones will be multimode," Jacobs said. "That will give us licensing agreements to work with those companies."

Richard Sulpizio, Qualcomm's president and chief operating officer, said the company wants to create a stable market that can accommodate CDMA.

"Our market is primarily a horizontal one," Sulpizio said. "They are looking at Qualcomm for a total solution and want to know that everything they have working today will be around tomorrow."

Qualcomm shares ended the day down 3.3 percent, or $2.13, to close at $63. The shares are off about 66 percent from a high of $200, which was hit in trading on Jan 3.

Rex Crum is a reporter at UpsideToday covering telecom, broadband and wireless.

upside.com <<

- Eric -