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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/19/2000 11:05:23 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

OT: Is there GG precedence for a full blown tornado, recession, then resumption of tornado on a different evolutionary path?TIA. -dave

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/19/2000 11:10:10 PM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

You are right as far as 2G is concerned, because of the upgrade path,2G is saturated and sub growth will not be any where near tornado levels.However I think they are definitely a gorilla of 2g and 2.5g cdma market. The question is 3g where I think they will be a huge royalty bearer but will share the asics market with quite a few.However the market for 3g should be big enough to offset any loss of asics market share. I also don't expect much stock appreciation in the short term,but qcom is the best candidate for a Gorilla in 3g .I will lock the shares up and watch how things proceed. Look forward to seeing other posters opinion. PS British Open starts today

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/20/2000 1:01:24 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

UF, << The sub rate growth of cdma is well below Tornado levels at this point >> This metric does bear watching. 50 million to 67 million first 6 months is a little marginal. Korea is affecting that. There is going to be a big kicker from the US however here on out as Verizon analog subs convert to cdma digital. Xmas is coming. CDG just projected (in mid June) 100 million subs by December 31. No way Jose, but my original estimate for the year was 90 million (I think CDG's was also) and we should come close to that. << and qcom's penetration of the 2G market makes me question whether they are really a Gorilla at all or just a big, powerful Chimp >> Still the fastest growing technology and the only one with proprietary open architecture. Still growing market share. CDG says 67 CAGR going forward for 400 million subs by 2004 end (without China) and that is possible with China, and that is substantial. << It's clear that they will be a Gorilla in the 2.5G./3G space but they're still a few quarters away from reaching Tornado levels >> No tornado yet in 2.5G and that wireless data tornado may be more than a few quarters away. I'm looking at 1xMC at 144 kbps as 2.5G. 3G is Multimedia and there is no tornado in sight, IMO. - Eric -

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/20/2000 1:08:33 AM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

It's clear that they will be a Gorilla in the 2.5G/3G space, but they're still a few quarters away from reaching Tornado levels. I'm reminded of that guy named Demning (i think) that schooled the Japanese (late 70s) and criticized the U.S. regarding short term vs. long term focus. I'm very surprised how the market has taken a "show me the money" stance on the Q and some other longer term strong plays like gmst. And that's also the reason for the great volatility - once the results are evident the stock price will rocket - but maybe not until the money is in the company's coffers. Regarding the CC, I was pleasantly surprised on two fronts. First that IJ could not say when the discussions with NOK and MOT would be concluded. His use of that word leads me to believe there is already substantial agreement between the two companies. Second was IJ's insistence that the Q would collect the full royalty on WCDMA and that an announcement "in the near future" would provide the Q with the necessary gsm ipr so that cross licensing would not reduce standard royalty rate. (paraphrasing of my interpretation) Regarding gorilla status, clearly the cdma gorilla and as everyone is signing on to a flavor of cdma as their 3G technology the Q appears destined to be the 3G wireless gorilla. While I don't think their asic market share comes into play in judging their gorilla status, I believe IJ's statement that the Q will own a significant share of the market. Better yet, how about spinning off the asics division into a separate company competing with TXN and INTC head to head. QCOM just takes 5% of everything cdma related, infra to handsets, from every manufacturer. Patience, patience and in a couple years we'll all be telling the QCOM story and how we knew it was a sure thing - ok, ok as close as you can get to a sure thing. Rory (p.s. not expecting a rough day for the Q Thursday)

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/20/2000 8:45:27 AM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

The sub rate growth of cdma is well below Tornado levels at this point, and qcom's penetration of the 2G market makes me question whether they are really a Gorilla at all or just a big, powerful Chimp (which is not a bad thing). Well according to the manual- NO Tornado=No Gorilla Also NO promises allowed. Q is now firmly in the catagory of Promising future earnings growth. Q is no Gorilla at this time. Some back of the envelope numbers QCT $338mm on 15mm chips= 22.50 per chip 100mm chips at 22.50=2.2bil. 2.2bil @ 32%=720mm GP (by the way the drop from 40% margin to 32%margin is the killer) Qtl 152mm for Qtr annualized at the 38% growth rate=828mm QWS 65mm for the Qtr annualized with no growth= 260mm $720mm +$828mm +$260mm Total=1.8bil*38% tax rate/by 740mm shares= 1.50 net earnings anybody want to put a pe on next yrs earnings. Even at a PE of 75 were only talking $112. 100