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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (26034)	7/19/2000 10:52:21 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Stolen from a respected guy on the RNWK thread: To: Roy Fortier who wrote (5408) From: John F Beule Wednesday, Jul 19, 2000 1:46 PM ET Reply # of 5412 It is very clear that the market is at a short-term top. Why? Because of the majority of quality issues getting trounced after reporting. This is not as simple as saying "buy on rumor, sell on news"...the knowledge is below the surface. If I scratch the surface, I see very little news on the horizon lifting stocks near-term. Interest rates, like usual, have been factored in to the current run-up of equities the last two months so this will be a non-issue after this week. 401k money is being piled in to funds...but not matching money, that has already been tapped out by most companies for the year. Because of the world economy burning up, we are seeing labor and product shortages....rates won't be coming down or going up for awhile...we are not at the "end of the rate cycle", Greenspan second-guessers would have you believe. Basically, we are experiencing momentum swings, and traders are taking advantage of this...how? Mo-mo traders buy up these quality issues fueling the frenzy for "blowout" earnings. Then, at the peak of frenzy, these companies report stellar earnings...problem is there is no "suprise" ie: split, creaming the numbers, etc...make no mistake...the numbers are met or beat by a penny, but the mo-mo's sell out the stock, it dives (because it was unsupported by quality buyers), and this fuels the opposite frenzy..and the baby goes out with the bathwater. This is the only game out there right now. If you are buying...you will have to pick your battles (stocks) and hold as a long term investor to win the war. Find the quality issues that are reporting great numbers and CC's (there are plenty of them) and find a comfortable price you would like to own it at. My guess is it will come to you in the next 2 months. Buy it and hold, and win. Happy investing! John Beule