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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (3904)	7/20/2000 2:13:13 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Wednesday's U.S. Markets: Stocks, Treasuries Fall; Dollar Rises quote.bloomberg.com U.S. Markets Thu, 20 Jul 2000, 2:11am EDT Wednesday's U.S. Markets: Stocks, Treasuries Fall; Dollar Rises By Geoffrey Smith New York, July 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a second day as profits at companies from Apple Computer Inc. to UAL Corp. disappointed investors. Bonds declined and the dollar rose. The following is a roundup of activity in the U.S. markets: The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled, giving it a negative year- to-date return only a week after it turned positive for the first time since April. Microsoft Corp., Veritas Software Corp. and Intel Corp. led the decline amid concern their earnings growth doesn't justify their lofty share prices. Technology ``stocks have run so much since the beginning of June,'' said Jay Nakahara, manager of the $1.1 billion Invesco-GT Technology Fund, which is up 32 percent this year. ``A lot of tech investors buy going into the quarter in anticipation of great numbers, and then we get those numbers and they sell.'' The Nasdaq fell 121.54, or 2.9 percent, to 4055.63 after a 2.3 percent drop yesterday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 11.78, or 0.8 percent, to 1481.96. Coca-Cola Co., Philip Morris Cos., Walt Disney Co. and Citigroup Inc. gained, limiting the decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 43.84, or 0.4 percent, to 10,696.08. Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 903 million shares changed hands on the Big Board, 4.2 percent below the three-month daily average. While second-quarter profits have risen more than average, some disappointing reports have cooled the investor optimism that sparked the 35 percent Nasdaq rally from the index's year-to-date low in May through Monday. Computer and telecommunications stocks have been among the best performers since then. The Nasdaq Computer Index gained 38 percent and the Nasdaq Telecomm Index jumped 34 percent, trailing only biotech shares as the best performing groups. Treasuries fell for the third day in four on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan may suggest to Congress tomorrow that the Fed will raise interest rates again this year. ``The economic news hasn't been good enough to keep (bond) prices moving higher, especially ahead of Greenspan,'' said Kevin Kennedy, who helps manage $30 billion in fixed income at SSB Citi Asset Management Group. Even so, Kennedy bought two-year notes because he doesn't expect their price to drop much more. The most-actively traded two-year note fell 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face amount, to a price of 99 27/32. Its yield rose 3 basis point to 6.45 percent, the highest level since June 28. The most active 10-year note fell 3/32 to 102 15/32 as its yield rose 1 basis point to 6.15 percent. The current 30-year bond fell 3/32 to 104 21/32, while its yield held at 5.91 percent. About $24.6 billion of securities traded through major brokers by 3 p.m. in New York, 47 percent less than the average Wednesday in the third quarter of 1999, a sign some traders were hesitant to make big bets ahead of the Fed chief's testimony. Greenspan is likely to acknowledge that the Fed's six rate increases in the past 13 months are working to correct imbalances in the economy, said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. Yet, he'll also ``likely indicate that the Fed still believes the balance of risks remained skewed toward higher inflation,'' he said. The dollar rose against the euro, as reports showing a slump in German business sentiment and construction industry orders quelled optimism for growth in the region's biggest economy. Confidence among West German executives unexpectedly fell in June and new construction orders dropped in May, suggesting the European Central Bank's five interest-rate increases since November have succeeded in curbing economic growth. Europe's 11-nation currency ``was not helped by the fact the Ifo (business sentiment) results were a little softer'' and construction statistics fell, said David Durrant, a currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer. ``The euro losing ground comes as U.S. continues to do fairly well.'' The euro declined for a third day, falling as far as 91.93 U.S. cents, its first time below the 92-cent level since May 26. It later traded at 92.34 U.S. cents from 92.48 cents yesterday, still down about 1.8 percent so far this week. The euro traded at 100.03 yen from 100.15. Japan's currency weakened against the dollar to 108.34 from 108.14. Traders said there is some reluctance to place bets on currencies before Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies to the U.S. Senate tomorrow on the state of the economy. Greenspan will be watched for any hints to future Fed interest- rate policy and the inflation outlook in the U.S.

To: J.T. who wrote (3904)	7/20/2000 1:29:19 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

So far DOW has failed to take out this DOW 10,863 100% fibonacci retracement from June 5th intraday highs. It had better do this today if it is going to prove we are going higher. A close below DOW 10,815 is bad omen for bulls today considering how much they have gotten lathered up on IBM and JDSU and Greenspan dove comments on capital hill. I still believe he will raise 1/4 point on fed funds in August. DOW 10,863 resistance is to SPX 1,480 support. As I mentioned yesterday, UTIL was overbought and would weigh down SPX today even though it is up it is tempered by UTIL pullback. IF we take out DOW 10,863 this afternoon, DOW 11,000 intraday test is on the cards tomorrow. If Bulls can't hold significant gains today- trouble ahead next week. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (3904)	7/21/2000 1:13:06 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, July 20th: Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index): SPX Long - TITAN 29.9 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 21.1 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 62.7 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 18.5 Million ********************************* Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 665 Million SPX Short- URSA 272 Million NDX Long - OTC 3,528 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 88 Million XAU Precious Metals 37.5 Million Money Market 981 Million ************************************ One day whipsaw shows the massive swings in SPX Short URSA assets now at lowest levels since June 15th when SPX closed at SPX 1,478. Today we closed at SPX 1,495.57 - the resistance level we printed in last nights update. I need to cut it short tonight. Will update support/resistance levels tomorrow. Best Regards, J.T.