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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (56541)	7/20/2000 8:07:20 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116834

ho ho ho.. YOU are flawed. there you go again, talking to others as if you had some special insight into gold... roflmao... please tell me you've gone superbear on gold and the XAU and the bottom will be in...

To: Zardoz who wrote (56541)	7/20/2000 10:01:41 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 116834

the reserves in the ground are also valued at an historically extremely low level already. your rhetoric doesn't change the fact that all the ratios that refer to the XAU are at what has historically been the ideal buy point. since i'm still waiting for the 'new stock bull market' you proclaimed to have begun in December of '99, i guess i will have to wait for your XAU prediction to come true as well... the stock market of course is also at a valuation extreme...only at the other end of the spectrum. to come back to the XAU, it is also a seasonally great time to buy, as lows frequently are made in the summer. of course the future PoG is the main factor driving a buying decision. since the US current account deficit continues to hit new records month after month, it is reasonable to expect dollar strength to wane in the not too distant future. the dollar index peak this year coincided with a 97% bullish consensus reading according to market vane, which hints that probably an important top has been made. future dollar weakness will be great fot the PoG of course. then there's the old adage that says "buy low, sell high". i'm a great fan of that maxim...the greater fools theory of "buy high and sell higher " doesn't appeal to me that much. to each his own i guess.... btw, i don't necessarily expect a gold bull market to materialize out of the blue...it is likely that the bottoming process will be a little bit more protracted. but the wisdom or lack thereof of accumulating gold shares now can really only be judged at some point in the future, say in 6 - 12 months. we will certainly re-visit the subject, don't worry. here's at least one money manager agreeing with me: <<Mutual Fund News Wed, 19 Jul 2000, 8:17pm EDT Fidelity Fifty's Muresianu Bets on Gold Rebound: Mutual Funds By Kathie O'Donnell Boston, July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Investments' John Muresianu is betting a decade worth precious metals' declines is due to end. The 47-year-old manager of the $536 million Fidelity Fifty Fund has dumped technology stocks, which constituted one-fifth of his holdings last year, and loaded up on metals stocks. That's a striking shift because gold was one of the biggest losers of the 1990s, shedding about one-quarter of its value. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose fivefold in the decade, with Microsoft Corp. -- one of his top holdings last year -- rising 4,000 percent in the 10 years ending June 30. ``He's a little bit of a maverick,'' said Jim Lowell, editor of Fidelity Investor, a monthly newsletter based in Needham, Massachusetts. Barrick Gold Corp., the world's No. 4 gold producer, was his biggest holding as of June 30. Newmont Mining Corp., the second- biggest gold producer, was his fourth-biggest holding. The fund had no precious metals stocks among its top-10 as of March 31. A year ago, Muresianu's fund looked a bit more conventional. About one-fifth of his money was in technology companies, including Microsoft, Cisco Systems Inc. and Lucent Technologies Inc. Record Muresianu, a Fidelity stock picker since 1992, began managing the fund in January 1999. It returned 46 percent last year to beat the S&P by 25 percentage points, the first time it had topped the index since 1994, according to Bloomberg. With the fund down 7.5 percent this year, the betting is that gold and other metals are due for a rebound. The 28 precious metals funds Bloomberg tracks have lost an average of 17 percent year to date through Tuesday. John Tumazos, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said Barrick has found new gold in Tanzania, Chile and Argentina as well as a bit in Nevada. ``The company is experiencing growth and benefiting from very strong finances and low costs,'' Tumazos said, adding that Barrick is doing better than the average mining company. Newmont is faring ``less well'' than Barrick. He sees opportunity, though. `` The stocks have greatly lagged the market and have upside opportunity.'' The money manager's spokesman Vin Loporchio said Fidelity doesn't comment on individual stocks. The fund had 1.5 percent of net assets in precious metals as of March 31, a stake that ballooned to 9.9 percent by April 30 and to 15.5 percent by June 30. Muresianu also boosted the fund's energy stake to 23.1 percent of the fund as of June 30 from 15.4 percent as of April 30. A number of another Fidelity portfolio managers have boosted their energy stakes as well, Lowell said. >> selling tech and buying gold, my my....