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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2617)	7/20/2000 1:35:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4690

Mike, >>Horace Mann was almost bought/sold less than a year ago for more than twice the current price. It's a steal. Just how low can it go? I'm watching it carefully right now.<< Yep! I think the offer was for over $30. Book value is a little under $10 right now. It dropped a bit recently because some unrealized capital gains on the bond portfolio became unrealized losses. I think the niche is fairly solid. The combined ratio is still excellent even now. I would be buying it right now but I am still trying to make an educated guess about its growth prospects among teachers. I'm hoping it doesn't leave the station before I'm comfortable. Wayne

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2617)	7/24/2000 2:47:14 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 4690

SVM, WPO Gotta thank Mike's new lows rule for saving me a substantial loss on Servicemaster. Soon after buying it partially because it was near a tested low, it slipped to a new low. I sold the whole thing for a 3/8 loss. Turned out to be the day before they missed a quarter, prannounced the year...stock is now about 7% below where I sold it. So thanks, Mike. Another stock trading just above a low that has been tested multiple times is Washington Post (WPO). Twister has been on top of this one for a while now, and he's been giving hints trying to get somebody else to pick up the annual report. It will take you a few hours to piece this one together, but the key is the segment breakdown. Newspapers are selling in the private market for 12-13x EBITDA, and the Washington Post is probably one of the four or five most valuable newspaper franchises in the country. They also have a substantial cable TV business and a bunch of local TV stations which are worth a lot. There are a couple adjustments you need to make to the earnings. You'll find them. I get $700-800 a share without making any big assumtpions. I know management is of the highest character, and I also know the company has been buying the crap out of the stock at a level 20% higher (and that there is no way Warren Buffett would have the company buying back shares if he didn't think they were undervalued.) Read at least the Chairman's letter - it looks like Buffett himself ghostwrote it. Anyway, I sold Servicemaster into Washington Post.