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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rmooney who wrote (2293)	7/20/2000 8:16:24 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 3951

Estimates versus actual: Message 13792303 Message 13801844 H&Q estimates (reg text) vs. actual (bold text): * SDL preannounced upside for Q2, raising sales growth guidance 15% Q/Q to roughly 44%, Operating margin growth guidance increases 24% to 58% Q/Q. Revs up 53% sequentially and 156% y/y; Op margins were 34.4%, up 72% sequentially, 402% y/y * We expect SDL to report roughly $104M/0.30 in Q2 versus our current $9M/0.26, though we are not formally changing our estimates until the PIRI acquisition closes (most likely in early June). We estimate our FY:00 estimates will go from $379/1.06 to $440 - $450/$1.20 - 1.25 and FY:01 will go from $575/1.43 to $720 - $740/$1.65, - 1.80, including PIRI. $110.5M/0.33. * Assuming $104M in Q2 sales and $5M from PIRI, given last quarter's $20M+ run-rate, we believe about 60% of the upside in Q2 is attributable to organic growth, particularly from submarine, Raman and terrestrial pumps. gross margins increased 4.7 pts --- 2.7 was base business; 2.0 was from 3 acquisitions. * We believe stronger than expected cost-cutting and improved utilization will drive growth margins about 2% ahead of our 48.6% expectation and, despite increased expenses, will boost operating margins to 33+%, versus our previous 30% estimate. Gross margins were 52.6% and operating margins 34.4%. * Going forward, management has guided to 140% Y/Y 00/99 sales growth, which we believe largely discounts organic strength and mostly reflects the incorporation of PIRI. We believe extended long-term contracts with Alcatel, Corning and JDS Uniphase are under negotiation and significant upside, especially in CY:01 remains. All three were listed as 10% or higher customers and all three have contracts through 2001. In Q1 revs grew 23% over Q4/99 and this Q they grew 53% over Q1.. FY99 revenues were $187.0 million. Q1 revenues were $72.2M and Q2s were $110.5, for a total $182.7M. H&Q's FY estimate is for $450M. If SDL's revenues for 2H increase 25% each Q, they'll be $490. Reading between the lines from the CC --- and knowing how the company operates --- I'm guessing the 25% sequential estimate is low. As usual they'll under promise and over perform. Pat