Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (4872)	7/20/2000 8:23:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<I think the SOX is bieng accumulated here. AMAT, ADI , TXN refuse to break important support levels.>> All 3 were down today, as was the SOX itself, after being up in the early going. TXN closed right on its low and is only about a point over the 200 dy MA. Hard to read accumulation in today's action, IMO. Fundamentally, I think all 3 have problems brewing due to excess inventory in the handset makers limiting forward orders. As far as sector upgrades, well, its hard to upgrade any further than the "GEE WHIZ, SUPER-DE-DUPER BUY" rating that most brokers have on the group now (although endless reiterations are certainly possible and indeed likely untill share inventories are sold off).

To: fedhead who wrote (4872)	7/20/2000 8:53:34 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

don't forget, we get three SOX upgrades a week anyway...once again, the contrarian position is that of suspecting a topping of the semi cycle, as suggested by the SSB analyst. note, when the SOX and the semi cycle bottomed in late '98, also only one lone WS analyst came out and said so (i don't recall who it was). many of the overoptimistic demand projections for cell phone handsets and PCs may in reality not come true - mind you, the numbers will no doubt be respectable, but is is highly likely that overordering of parts has taken place and as a consequence too much new capacity is coming online as well. also the frequent assertions that the cycle is different, dead, what have you, remind me very much of the atmosphere at previous cycle tops. if one has been in this sector for some time, one is sitting on huge profits anyway...why take a risk? btw, the latest rally has also seen the options traders hop aboard like at no other stage since the advance began. well, that's basically the contrarian 'sell the rallies' argument for the SOX...the buy buy buy argument you can hear ten times daily from WS, on CNBC, etc.