Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (7245)	7/21/2000 2:33:27 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

How did you arrive at a $1.6 million increase in sales? Sales of Zicam were $368,092 in the first quarter of 1999 and $3,100,503 in the first quarter of 2000. That is an increase of $2.7 million year to year, which I believe is the best way to compare a seasonal product. <Losing $2.7 million in the very prime of cold season?> This is misleading. Can you name a few companies that made a profit on a new product during its launch? Zicam increased its share of the market last winter, but sales of cough and cold products were down across the board because of the mild winter. La Nina is to blame but the weather reports that I have read predict that La Nina is coming to an end. Also, the prime of the cold season for purchasing by retailers is the fourth quarter, not the first quarter. The primary reason that people thought Q1 00 sales would exceed Q4 99 sales is because they thought the company would have international distribution set up. They didn't get it set up in time but it will almost certainly be set up for this cold season. More importantly for future sales, I believe that Gum Tech is working to establish a joint venture with a large partner to distribute and market Zicam. This is consistent with the strategy in their gum business as well. Overall, sales were up 40% from 1997 to 1998 and 194% from 1998 to 1999. The sales growth should continue this year and next, and the company should be profitable soon. It seems to me that at a price of 13 all the speculation is out of the stock and any number of potential events could send the stock back to a new 52 week high. Longs won Jan - Feb. Shorts won Feb - Mar. The stock has been flat Mar - present. Long term, this company continues to grow and I believe that longs will win. Luck, Dan