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To: Lucretius who wrote (4982)	7/21/2000 10:16:40 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

lol...no way...it's a new era,right? it appears there's lots of oil at sea at the moment...the tanker fixtures reports upset brent in London... scenario as per H.Campbell: <<logic suggests a scenario like this: * OPEC makes some conciliatory noises about raising quotas in response to US pressure, wishing to maintain the illusion that its members can meet demand at will. * Norway and Mexico continue to support OPEC within the framework of such conciliatory words, making a virtue of necessity. * The market takes the hint and marks down the price of oil in an action that feeds on itself as the new flavour of the month permeates the ranks of speculators, hedge funds and derivative specialists searching for a quick buck. Refiners hold back from filling their tanks. Prices collapse to the low $20's, even perhaps plummeting briefly into the >teens. People relax in the belief that the wolf has headed back into the forest. The famous flat-earth economists again cheer that market forces reign supreme. * But then a few weeks later, people begin to notice that fewer tankers are arriving. Norway says that storms were responsible; Venezuela speaks of floods; Mexico claims restructuring; Saddam says he needs a spare part; and King Fahd leads a delegation of puzzled Senators into the desert to show that all the wells are fully open. * The penny finally drops that there is no instant spare capacity in the sense of shut-in wells. The men at their screens start marking up prices. * A new upward momentum drives prices through the $40 barrier. When Air Force One makes a new panic tour to Norway, Mexico and the Middle East, it meets ashen faced oilmen saying that they have been working night and day to meet their quotas, but were unable to do so. * The world, including OPEC, gradually appreciates that it faces a losing battle in trying to offset the depletion of the large, old, low-cost fields. >> the oil based economy will end, during the first qu. of this century. better get those wood stoves out...-g-