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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semiconeng who wrote (120685)	7/21/2000 1:01:15 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575980

Since orders are "Booked" for "Delivery" 2-3 months in the future, it is a very good indicator of how a companies next quarter is most likely to be. But a decline in book to bill that results in the btb still being over 1.2 might not be such a good indicator. If orders go up 10% but your ability to process and fill the orders goes up 12% you are probably making more money. If the book to bill declines because the book declines that I would worry but if both are going up and the btb is still over 1.2 then I am not sure that the decline is a good indicator of a future decline in profits. Tim

To: semiconeng who wrote (120685)	7/21/2000 7:51:34 PM
From: Rod Patten	Respond to of 1575980

I was simply quoting CNBC. If you disagree with the statement you are disagreeing with CNBC. I was simply relaying the message.

To: semiconeng who wrote (120685)	7/22/2000 8:42:04 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 1575980

Semiconeng, The book to bill horizon varies greatly with what is ordered. 747's from Boeing will have a longer scheduled delivery date than carbon comp resistors. High precicion optical stuff like steppers also has a longer lead time. Right now the flash for the next 2 years is completely booked, so if you want some booked it is 2+ years. Now some of those booked orders are by manufacturers who have a genuine need. Some are duplicate orders from those same manufacturers...just in case. And some of those orders are from spot market speculators with manufacturers as fronts accumulating the parts and selling them for 10 times their list price to people with a $10,000 machine that needs one part who did not plan ahead. I can recall the 74LS245 going for over $100.00 each in one of the older LS shortages(the one that built Future Electronics). This part usually was less than 20 cents. Now a good semi makers does not want parts in the hands of surplus speculators, like Future and some others. so they watch, but it is hard to police, after all they are all sales and the sales man will whine if you deny him a big order as he wants his crumbs from the table(commissions). With semiconductor production equipment the lead times are very long and can be 2-3 years for some pieces that are defining the state of the art as they are made. Sub .10 stuff from what I read is like this. As you get bigger they get into shorter lead times and then they get into inventory and then into old stuff cheap and surplus. So the BtB is valid for semis, but it can collapse very quickly as duplicate orders are cancelled and the speculators see a demand crash and also cut their orders. As you have seen these shortages always end with a crash for the above reasons. In equpment the ramps are long and slow. There are often many sole source suppliers and they absorb this ebb in demand by delivering more quickly....thus driving the next upswing(with smaller features) by getting the new smaller stuff out the door to all players within a smaller timetable.. Bill