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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (120686)	7/21/2000 1:41:40 PM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 1576124

Of course, you all know that the book to bill ratio that came out last night is the semiconductor equipment b2b, right? 1.26 is still very high, from historical a perspective. If it goes to 1, do all the semiconductor companies go out of business? Good old SSB hangover still with us. Tony

To: TimF who wrote (120686)	7/22/2000 2:16:16 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576124

Tim, catching this BTB discussion in the middle, but I think fact that the rate of declline in the BTB has slowed to a crawl augers well for the BTB actually rising in a month or two. I forget the exact numbers, but the change in the BTB was something like -0.10, -0.06, -0.02 for the last 3 months. Since the numbers are 3 month moving averages, the actual peak in the monthly BTB was about 4-5 months ago. If it takes 3 months to fill an order for semi equipment, a rapid rise in bookings results in a rapid rise in billings three months later. This rise is what caused the BTB to decline, not a decline in bookings. A more moderate rise in billings will also soon be upon us, and then the BTB will rise to equal its actual 3 month growth rate in bookings. Petz