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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave-in-MarinCa who wrote (419)	7/21/2000 4:35:36 PM
From: rsie	Respond to of 10065

I am glad I got out of my semiequips(cymi,asyt,amat,mtsn) in January.....they are looking very tired....no problem sleeping at night.....I still have a little UTEK....it is the only one of the bunch that is up today! Rich

To: Dave-in-MarinCa who wrote (419)	7/21/2000 4:43:40 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Dave: Re: "When does the market start to reflect this??? Or has the Fed removed all risk???" Fed. has not removed all risk. Market is starting to reflect this now IMO. Not to say that the market can't rally further on a celebration to the end of the tightening cycle, but why is it that there is so much selling on the news of stellar earnings? We are seeing distribution here as investors are concerned about profits going forward. This is the other side to the end of the tightening cycle if we are there. If you believe the Greenman is done, you have to assume that the Greenman has caused some real damage to the economy and EARNINGS. And you want to be out of those vulnerable stocks before the news hits. Why? You pick the blow up of the week and you will know why. If you are caught holding the bag, you find yourself with a huge haircut and nowhere to go but sideways at best with your haircut intact all the way into tax selling season if you share the same market outlook as Brinker. This is why specific stock risk sucks in this environment. If you chose Aglient to play any rally, you lost. If you chose LRCX, BMCS or CTRX to play any rally, you lost again. If you played them all, you are a huge loser. Brinker was right: it is a huge minefield out there and the odds are getting higher and higher that you will get blow'd up. The QQQs have been the only smart way to play this rally on a risk/reward basis because you reduced the risk of being blow'd up and ending up a loser while increasing the probabilities of walking out a winner. Brinker realized this and hats off to him for chosing this vehicle.