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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (46471)	7/21/2000 5:39:41 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

hmmmmm, if CSCO is forming a cup and handle, being the tech bell weather that it is, check out this comp chart.... infospace.com

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (46471)	7/21/2000 5:46:57 PM
From: Atin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

There is actually a lot of supply at 70 for CSCO. If you look at the last time we tested 70 when it was support between 3/30 and 4/11, all that volume is people who bought near 70. Many of them sold on 5/1-5/2 when it came back ("please god, just let me get even . . ."). That's why 70 was resistance. We fell hard and the people who were left still holding at 70 were praying even harder. Well, sure enough, the Cisco kid comes back and they sell between 6/14 and 6/22. Add up those volumes. Whatever is left is what is selling now (approx. of course). Once all that is gone, we go up, if the market also cooperates! I need to figure out a way to automate this analysis of volume at support/resistance and put it on a P&F chart somehow to figure out whether a breakout is going to happen or not . . . -Atin

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (46471)	7/21/2000 6:10:09 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

I see both positives and negatives here. It does have many of the classic CnH attributes but there are a few things missing. One is the length of time. Usually a good CnH takes 7 weeks or longer to establish itself and base. This one has been 4 1/2 or so. Shorter duration ones often fail after the breakout. Volume a couple of days ago when it approached 70 was up, as it should have been. Yesterday's high was on good volume, but not nearly what it did the last leg up which isn't as good a sign. Handles usually take a couple of weeks to resolve themselves and break lows as they go (a shakeout of sorts). We haven't seen that here yet. Regular TA is more mixed. OBV has been very good lately. With today's drop though it has a classic b-band pattern for a downturn. It is also overbought at many different time scales and it's RSI, while not losing ground as quickly as some others, is getting lower with higher prices. That isn't good. I guess to summarize, PnF would have a move above 70 as very positive. That corresponds nicely with the opitmal buy point on the CnH. If it breaks 70 1/8 on heavy volume that would be the breakout you are looking for. Like I said though, the stats I have read show a much higher failure rate for a CnH breakout under 7 or 8 weeks. Hope that helps. Jeff