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Technology Stocks : BMC Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john dodson who wrote (1298)	7/22/2000 12:09:59 AM
From: RGM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1492

John - I noticed your posts here and on CA re the times sales criteria. I believe the times sales ranks at the same level as the book value criteria in that both hardly have the importance of cash flow or "recast" cash flow. A portion of the "recast" cash flow method consist of adding back the funds from what the owners of the acquired company have been taking out of the business. The assumption is the owners of the acquired business are replaced by salaried managers. I think that $ amount for CA would be very significant for this component. I agree with what you said in your CA post in that times sales criteria is "meaningless". I bought into both of the companies last week, then sold my positions for a few hundred dollar loss after watching the times and sales (T&S) charts for these two companies for a day or two. My T&S listing indicated that small investors were buying and institutions were selling (block transactions). I don't believe BMCS or CA are being considered by IBM for acquisition. IBM is a hardware focused company. They are not interested in taking on an additional set of problems by acquiring BMCS or CA. IBM's track record in the software side of the computer business is nothing to brag about (1980s and 1990s). Please correct me if I am wrong. Bottom Line - both BMCS and CA shares are dead money for a minimum of 3 months. During this time frame, I believe, they are going to establish new lows from where they are now. The trick is to determine where is the bottom? Rob

To: john dodson who wrote (1298)	7/22/2000 9:14:34 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 1492

41 I will take it right now. Short sighted I know but this stock is responsible for an ulcer.

To: john dodson who wrote (1298)	7/26/2000 11:17:57 PM
From: Doug	Respond to of 1492

John: review the SOX index to see how the Semi's did when that sector tanked 2 yrs ago. There are distinct phases when a sector gets thrashed. These are a: Earnings shortfall for 1 or 2Q's followed by downgrades all well spaced out to push the stocks lower each time. The downgrades are usually Neutral or equivalent. b: When all stocks are hit and downgraded, they enter a fear stage. The volume decreases sharply and bargain hunters appear. c: In the next 8 weeks the stocks hold a tight trading band of +$2 at most. d: One month prior next earnings the Analysts close to the Inside know how the Company has fared. The buying starts slowly and waits till either the 50 day ema or a head and shoulder line is crossed on the up side. These are classic patterns which good stocks that tank go thru. I saw ABT at $28 , its now $40. Check out ABT's doom and gloom Board. You need to be patient when a sector tanks.

To: john dodson who wrote (1298)	7/26/2000 11:22:45 PM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1492

John: review the SOX index to see how the Semi's did when that sector tanked 2 yrs ago. There are distinct phases when a sector gets thrashed. These are a: Earnings shortfall for 1 or 2Q's followed by downgrades all well spaced out to push the stocks lower each time. The downgrades are usually Neutral or equivalent. b: When all stocks are hit and downgraded, they enter a fear stage. The volume decreases sharply and bargain hunters appear. c: In the next 8 weeks the stocks hold a tight trading band of +$2 at most. d: One month prior next earnings the Analysts close to the Inside know how the Company has fared. The buying starts slowly and waits till either the 50 day ema or a head and shoulder line is crossed on the up side. These are classic patterns which good stocks that tank go thru. I saw ABT at $28 , its now $40. Check out ABT's doom and gloom Board. You need to be patient when a sector tanks. The low prices are purely artificial. Most M.F's transfer the stock from one Fund to another and do so at a lower price to ensure their Fund shows a +ve. The small Investor unfortunately has no where to turn to. Good luck.