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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (28514)	7/21/2000 10:48:12 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Yes, you'll hear me. I got an email from the Fool's radio producer asking for my phone number because they wanted me to ask Geoff some pre-taped questions for the Radio Show interview on Saturday where he will appear as one of the guests. They said I had 5 to 10 minutes to prepare some questions while they set up the stuff in audio to record my questions before calling me back. So, I quickly typed out three areas of interest I thought 'Fools' might be interested. I thought I chose three that covered an overview of Geoff's books from "Chasm" to "Fault Line". I even attempted to keep it really, really simple considering the majority that listen to the show never have heard of a 'chasm' let alone procurement. Here is what I quickly prepared: ================= Geoff, I'm a big fan of your books "Crossing the Chasm", "Inside the Tornado", "The Gorilla Game" and have recently just read "Living on the Fault Line" I have three targeted questions that I feel encompass a lot of information for investors as we try to invest and manage our own money in high technology. - In studying the technology adoption life cycle of Business to Business, I have read a comment you made concerning thoughts that B2B has yet to cross the chasm. One of the early games we are looking at hinges around the segment that Ariba and Commerce One participate. Ariba just reported a sequential revenue growth quarter of 100% and Commerce One just reported a sequential revenue growth of 79%. On top of that, there are a lot of analysts and retail investors rushing to proclaim a 'winner' at this very early stage in the game. I know that you have mentioned the market is getting better at projecting winners earlier much like the early polls in political elections do. I like the strategy that was presented in "The Gorilla Game" about buying a basket of the leading candidates within the space and wondered if you could address this issue for those of us who are interested in what looks to be a very exciting sector for investment. Is a basket strategy of owning a few of the top candidates and then consolidating to the leading candidate in the future one that you would suggest in this B2B space? - Another question that many investors have at the moment revolves around Qualcomm and their position in the CDMA wireless technology adoption life cycle. The question revolves around all the 'noise' that we hear in the media and press about Qualcomm and their wireless standard being used or not being used in various geographic regions. How does an investor digest all of this 'noise' in the media and focus on the underlying technology standards to invest in the space? - If we look back just over the past year or two about the excitement of the Internet based business model - which you entitled the Godzilla Game in the revised edition of "The Gorilla Game", a lot of speculation went into the companies as optimism grew and turned into almost a 'frenzy'. Obviously, there has been some 'reality' checks in the space. I had to laugh the other day when I read a somewhat conservative investing newsletter with a blurb brimming with excitement talking about Cardinal Health and how they had launched a full dot.com attack. I think this might tie in well with the excellent issues you raise in "Living on the Fault Line". How are investors to interpret companies such as Cardinal Health and others that are indeed trying to avoid not being left behind with the Internet and instead, attempting to embrace it? ==================== After I rattled them off on the air, I was told to try again and forget about company names and address it to the general Jane/Joe driving down the highway who had tuned into the Fool Radio Show for the first time in their lives. So the questions you hear me ask Geoff are so watered down that the above three areas are condensed to something like: - "How do we as investors digest the news we read and hear about technology companies?" - "How would investors go about investing in the B2B space?" - "How are old world economy stocks going to use the Internet?" Sorry I couldn't go with more specific stuff - especially with Geoff on the other end answering the questions, but they wanted me to really condense it and so I did. You all know how difficult that is for me. <ggg> Chances are they might only use one of the questions depending on the time available. I wasn't expecting it, but then they asked me on the spot to sing a little something at which point David Gardner got on the phone. I squeaked out a few measures of something without bravura, but it was too early in the AM here in California when they called to demonstrate any bravura. BB