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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (30252)	7/22/2000 9:32:53 AM
From: Paullie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande - LPTH and O/T LPTH - I completely agree with your current assessment that LPTH may be fairly valued at this time. (in fact I sold LPTH at around 46 for JDSU and will wait for LPTH to reach 30's). Let's just add to your review of LPTH by looking at the potential events that we expect to occur within the next 6 months (?) at LPTH. Your review of the past events was pretty thorough. Here are potential events that will increase the value of the company, possibly drastically: 1) Earnings increase (probably little effect) 2) Trade Show in August (forgot the name?) 3) New product announcement in the area of Laor switch 4) New contract with GLW or preferably with JDSU/ETEK/SDLI (possibly LU - but right now I would prefer the former) 5) Lightchip product announcement (could be many different items) 6) Lightchip contract with GLW/JDSU/LU 7) Lightchip IPO announcement I listed these events in about the order that I would expect them to occur in the perfect scenario. Basically, a combination of a few of these events will, IMO, cause LPTH to be valued at a much higher rate. If these events occur at a time when the market is making a big run then I expect similar action in LPTH to that of ADAP last year. Yes, this includes the downturn, UNLESS LPTH proves that it will maintain a steady stream of revenue and profit unlike ADAP, which, IMO, was announcing future booked contracts - some that have little hope in actually getting filled. (Side note: I made lots of money on ADAP and still keep an eye on it. I have not reviewed ADAP financials recently so forgive me if I am not up to date.) So, IMO, it is dangerous to be out of LPTH (which I am at this time). However, I believe (like you said Rande) that LPTH will struggle for the next few weeks, possibly a month or two, UNLESS a combination of the above evenst occurs. _____________ O/T - Work trip to Kansas complete. Had to drive back to Alabama (stopped in your neck of the woods Rande) and then over to Texas. I am now sitting on my apartment floor in Round Rock - just about 3 miles from Dell HQ (don't own any Dell stock though!) Paullie