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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (440)	7/22/2000 3:36:30 PM
From: Dave-in-MarinCa	Respond to of 10065

Pete: That's the "64 dollar" question in my mind (am I dating myself? Few will remember that game show!!). What is the real M2 growth rate? Kasrial/NTRS relies on real M2 growth as a predictor of economic activity two quarters ahead and nominal M2 growth predicting inflation 3 years ahead <http://www.ntrs.com/economic_research/us_reports/pos2000/pos_econ_07jul.html>. We know the nominal growth rate is around 5.5%. However putting a number on the real inflation rate is the question. The BLS numbers under report it. Given what is happening to prices here in Northern CA, I think it is higher, pushing the real M2 growth rate lower, perhaps even negative? Dave

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (440)	7/22/2000 11:17:09 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 10065

Pete: "Brinker always focuses on M2 Money Supply Growth adjusted for inflation. " Thank you for posting this. Did you hear Brinker make the same point on the show today--the rate adjusted for inflation is below 2 (I wish I had noted the exact number)? Your other point is important too--with inflation trending up, the nominal M2 growth rate (not inflation adjusted) gives the appearance of greater growth. I recall points when the growth rate was 11%. Big change now. Ciao, David Todtman